There is a full slate of games today but we will focus our attention on two totals in our NBA picks and hope to exploit a few weaknesses we see after reviewing the NBA odds for Sunday March 29th, 2015.
Minnesota Wolves (38 O - 34 U) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (38 O - 32 U)
There are couple of NBA betting trends that jump right out at me when I start investigating for my NBA picks. The first of which is Minnesota's 12 'overs' versus only four 'unders' when playing against Southwest division opponents of which the Pelicans are one. Secondly, I glance at New Orleans' nine 'overs' in 10 games when the total ranges between 195-199 ½ when playing at home as it does here.
Those are compelling reasons to consider going high in this one as is the fact that three of the four games played in New Orleans between these two teams have gone 'over' as well. I realize that the Pelicans' last two games, both at home, have gone under the posted NBA odds with relative ease but they will play the T-Wolves tonight and will face the most porous defense in the league allowing an average of almost 106 points per game. The Wolves have gone over in three of their last four and it appears they have become more offensive (pun definitely intended) averaging north of 103 PPG over the course of their last four games.
The bottom line here is that you know the T-Wolves are going to allow any team to score buckets in bunches and the Pelicans are above averaging in doing so. Secondly, Minnesota is now scoring quite a bit of their own recently and we expect that trend to continue.
NBA Pick: Over 197 at Heritage.com.
Detroit Pistons (33 O - 37 U) vs. Miami Heat (29 O - 43 U)
In an interesting parallel we have a Detroit Pistons team that has reeled off four consecutive straight up and ATS covers that all landed 'over' the posted NBA odds total. In contrast, the Miami Heat have played 'under' in five consecutive games resulting in a mixed bag of two straight up and ATS wins versus three straight up and ATS losses. So the Pistons are flying high while the temperature is a bit chilly in South Beach. Something has to give but we have to figure out will the Pistons continue to rev their engines or will the Heat keep it cool?
There are a few telling clues to which we latch our inquiring minds. First off, the Pistons have played under in three of four tries when installed as a road underdog of three points or less. Meanwhile the Heat have gone 'under' in 11 of 13 of their Sunday games this season. In addition Miami games have gone 'under' in 13 of 17 instances after three or more consecutive games that have gone under the NBA odds posted total.
So here's the deal boys and girls. Miami is a defensively stingy team to begin with, allowing an average of only 96.7 PPG good for 3rd in the NBA. But when they are scoring a mere 85 ½ points per game as they have averaged over the course of their last four games then you've got to be thinking low especially when playing a Detroit team that is destined to return to earth after scoring far above what one would expect from their 20th ranked offense. I believe this is a good spot to take advantage of a very sound defensive team like Miami who will have no problems putting the clamps on what is a pedestrian offense like the Pistons'.
NBA Pick: Under 193 at Pinnacle