More ‘Under’ Goodness For Nuggets, Thunder

Friday, March 29, 2019 4:12 AM UTC

Friday, Mar. 29, 2019 4:12 AM UTC

The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder have gone ‘under’ three times this year. We’re betting on 4-0 for Friday’s NBA picks.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 27: 22-22-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 32-15 Totals

Denver (50-24 SU, 38-36 ATS) at Oklahoma City (44-31 SU, 38-37 ATS)

Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET

Free NBA Pick: Under

Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Ah yes, the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder. We’ve seen this movie before. These two teams met on February 26 in Denver, and we went with the Nuggets at –3.5 on the NBA odds board. They won 121-112. Huzzah! So we should probably do the same thing for Friday’s rematch in Oklahoma City.

Not this time, paisano. Things have changed over the past month; the Thunder have lost a lot of steam, and they’re only 5-point home faves for this contest – FiveThirtyEight project Oklahoma City at –6. Not only that, the early action is already on Denver, driving them down to –4.5 at several locations. That’s not enough room to take the other side yet; maybe if the Nuggets land at –4, you can consider fading them. We’ll be putting the ‘under’ in our NBA picks in the meantime.

Soft Shoulders

Exhibit A: The ‘under’ is a perfect 3-0 for the season series between the Nuggets and Thunder. It definitely helped our cause last month that the total was jacked up to 238 points, 20 points higher than the previous game in mid-December. Then you had Paul George and his ailing shoulder; George shot 7-of-24, including 3-of-14 from long range.

As we said, things have changed. The total is back down to 221 points for Friday’s matchup, and George appears to be regaining his shooting form – after laying an egg in Denver, he took the next three games off, then stunk up the joint for a while. There’s still some work to be done, but Oklahoma City is 2-1 SU and ATS over their last three games, splitting the total at 1-1-1. Maybe the money train won’t stop at this station after all.

Give Me Your Tired

On the other hand, the Nuggets will be playing on zero days of rest. They were in Houston Thursday night, and they got spanked 112-85 (Under 216.5) as 6-point puppies. That makes the ‘under’ 24-12-1 this year when Denver play on the road. It was such a blowout that nobody on the Nuggets played 30 minutes, but they do have to travel to OKC, which is going to tax their weary bodies.

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Paul George on his first 2,000-point season: “You see me iced up? It’s been a grind to get to 2,000, I guess.”

He had ice packs on his left shoulder and quad. pic.twitter.com/4vE09olzb5

— Maddie Lee (@maddie_m_lee) March 28, 2019
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Oh, what’s this? Paul George is questionable for Friday because of his left shoulder? They don’t play on Saturday, and the Thunder are in seventh place in the Western Conference, with a lot of incentive to move up to sixth and avoid a possible first-round matchup with the Golden State Warriors. We’re guessing George plays hurt, which will help us, but if he sits out, all the better. God bless the NBA, and may the sphere be with you.

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