NBA Money Line Pick of the Day: Underdog Nuggets +255 vs. Heat

Charles Stark

Friday, March 20, 2015 12:28 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 20, 2015 12:28 PM UTC

For Friday's NBA picks, we head to Miami for our daily upset special. Yesterday I had the Denver Nuggets & I'm going to take them again in this matchup over the Heat. Find out why they're worth the plus money line.

Winning in Houston is never easy so I am not too disappointed with the Nuggets yesterday (Harden had to go for 50 for them to lose).  I thought they just got in a bit of hole in the second quarter and that was that.  Still, they battled like crazy and had no quit, they were down by 16 points but cut the deficit to 9 in the fourth quarter, they just couldn’t get over the hump.  Miami rallied and outscored Portland 13 in the second half to pull out the four point win at home.  That was pretty impressive, in the last three games the Heat have been shooting over 50% from the field, and 33% beyond the arc.  Denver has not been bad either, hitting 39% beyond the arc and 44% from the field.  The Nuggets have also been great at pushing tempo in this same time span ranked 2nd in the league at 89 attempts per game.  Defensively both teams have been decent recently allowing opponent shooting percentages of 43.9% for Miami and 44.3% for Denver. 


Roller Coaster Year
This is true for both teams.  They have gone through significant changes this season.  Miami with the loss of Lebron coming into this year, battling through injuries, gaining Dragic, then, losing Bosh… nobody could predict the drama this year that is the Miami Heat.  Denver is not far off.  They suffered through their own share of injuries this year, drastically underachieved, then fired Brian Shaw, and then started to play really good basketball.  Because of this roller coaster it is kind of hard to gauge where these teams are.  For me, ultimately I am looking at the value on the money line in a situation where the odds makers have to make one team the favorite but the game should be a lot tighter when digging deeper.  But the roller coaster has made capping these teams pretty tough.  So to keep this to the point let’s answer one main question, who is playing better right now?


So Who is Playing Better Right Now?
Since the beginning of March Miami is 6-3 with losses to Washington, Boston and Toronto, nothing much to be ashamed of here.  There wins were against a struggling Phoenix team, the Lakers, Sacramento in OT, Brooklyn, Cleveland (with an ailing Lebron), and there big comeback against Portland.  Not bad but also not super impressive.  Denver is at 6-5 for March with losses to New Orleans, Houston, San Antonio, Memphis (resting guys), and Houston again (Harden goes nuts).  Their wins were Milwaukee, Minnesota, Knicks, Atlanta, Golden State (no Curry, no Thompson), and New Orleans.  Like Miami, not bad but nothing to brag about.  After looking at the games and stats I really think we can call this even.

NBA odds makers have come out making Miami a really strong favorite here at -6.5 at most sports books.  It makes some sense to me, but I think the the odds makers are betting the public will be placing NBA picks looking too much at their last two games.  I think they caught the Cavs at the perfect time and they had an unreal comeback against road weary Portland, I don’t think they are as good as the odds makers are making this number.  Denver is playing really well, they caught the tough end of an amazing Harden game, but even on a back to back here I think they come into Miami, continue their solid play, and take down the Heat.

NBA Pick:  Denver +255 from 5Dimes

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