NBA Finals MVP Picks: Is It Time to Bet on a Player From a Lower Seeded Team?

Kevin Stott

Saturday, May 9, 2015 6:17 PM GMT

With lower seeds still holding home-court advantage in all four of the NBA conference semifinal series, it’s quite possible some of the stars expected to lead their teams to an NBA title and potentially win the MVP won’t even make the NBA Finals. So is now the time to make a bet on a player from the Bulls, Clippers or Grizzlies? Let’s examine. 

Introduction
Timing is everything in some marketplaces, but of course, you don’t know if that timing is good timing until after the fact. Somebody somewhere actually did buy a bunch of Microsoft stock its $21 a share offering price back in 1986 and it may have changed their Lives for the better. Here, in the Modern Sports Gambling marketplace, where the 2015 NBA Playoffs continue to plug along, it really seems like now would be an ideal time to possibly make a play in the somewhat niche NBA Finals MVP marketplace, with the two big heavyweights in the NBA postseason—the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers—presently without the home-court advantage and with 1-1 and 1-2 records in their respective series. So, could we have an all lower-seeded, Washington Wizards-Chicago Bulls and Memphis Grizzlies-Los Angeles Clippers Final Four in the respective Conference Finals series? Or will LeBron James and the Cavaliers (Game 4 Sunday at Chicago, ABC, 8:15 p.m. ET/5:15 p.m. PT; Odds: Cavaliers -2, Total: 194½, GTBets) and Stephen Curry and the Warriors (Game 3 Saturday, ABC, 8:15 p.m. ET/5:15 p.m. PT; Odds: Warriors -4½, Total: 196½, GTBets) rally the troops and find a way to make it to the NBA Finals like many thought about months ago?

The way it looks right now, the Chicago Bulls (Series Price: Bulls -150, Cavaliers +130, GTBets) and Washington Wizards (Series Price: Hawks -370, Wizards +220, GTBets) have slight advantages in the Eastern Conference right now as do the Memphis Grizzlies (Series Price: Warriors -500, Grizzlies +425, GTBets) and the upstart Los Angeles (Series Price: Clippers -500, Rockets +350, GTBets) in the Western Conference. So maybe fading a potential LeBron or Curry or James Harden NBA Finals MVP Futures bet and picking someone a little more obscure from one of the lower seeds may be a prudent thing at this point in time with the NBA odds still pretty much unchanged.

 

Highest NBA Finals MVP Future Book Odds on Oddschecker Screen (May 9, 2015)
Stephen Curry, Warriors +150 (Ladbrokes)

LeBron James, Cavaliers +600 (Ladbrokes)

Klay Thompson, Warriors +1100 (888sport)

×Blake Griffin, Clippers+1200 (888sport, 32Red)

Derrick Rose, Bulls +1200 (Ladbrokes, 888sport, 32Red)

×Jimmy Butler, Bulls +1200 (Ladbrokes)

Chris Paul, Clippers +1400 (888sport, 32Red)

Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers +2000 (Ladbrokes, 888sport, 32Red)

James Harden, Rockets +2500 (888sport, 32Red)

Pau Gasol, Bulls +3000 (888sport, 32Red)

×Marc Gasol, Grizzlies +4000 (Ladbrokes)

×Mike Conley, Grizzlies +4000 (Ladbrokes)

Al Horford, Hawks +5000 (Ladbrokes)

×DeMarre Carroll, Hawks +5000 (Ladbrokes)

Paul Millsap, Hawks +5000 (Ladbrokes)

Jeff Teague, Hawks +5000 (Ladbrokes)

Dwight Howard, Wizards +6600 (888sport)

John Wall, Wizards +6600 (888sport)

Bradley Beal, Wizards +6600 (Ladbrokes)

Paul Pierce, Wizards +6600 (Ladbrokes)

×Zach Randolph, Grizzlies +8000 (Ladbrokes)

Kyle Korver, Hawks +8000 (Ladbrokes)

×Perceived Current High-Value Picks

 

Who Looks Like Good Mid-Range Picks Right Now?
Heading into play Saturday, the key players on the Chicago Bulls (Rose and Butler), the Memphis Grizzlies (Conley, Gasol and Randolph) and the Los Angeles Clippers (Paul and Griffin) appear to be the best candidates on which to try to make a nice score in this Future Bet marketplace, although, as always, the next game in each of those three teams series’ will be monumental in terms of momentum and toward getting to a hopeful Conference Final series in the next round. But now would be the time to act, with everyone else worried about the individual games and series themselves. In short, few are thing about the potential reality of someone like the Grizzlies Mike Conley (40/1, Ladbrokes), the Clippers Blake Griffin (12/1, 32Red) or the Bulls Jimmy Butler (12/1, Ladbrokes) winning the NBA Finals MVP this year. Besides Griffin, his Clippers teammate and playmaker Chris Paul (14/1, 32Red) probably has a pretty good shot if Los Angeles Fresh can get to the promised land, but with either the Western Conference’s top-seeded Warriors (+125 to win NBA Championship, bet365) or Memphis and Conley, Marc Gasol (40/1, Ladbrokes)—a potential genius NBA pick right now at those odds—and Zach Randolph (80/1, Ladbrokes) in the way, it won’t come easy. And, if either the Wizards underappreciated big man Marcin Gortat, Warriors workhorse Draymond Green or Grizzlies defensive whiz Tony Allen somehow end up being the ultimate winner, the NBA Finals MVP—something definitely not out of the realm of possibility These Strange Days—then none of us are getting paid, brother.

 

Conclusions
In terms of who has the momentum and confidence as of right now, it’s the Bulls in the East and the Clippers in the West, although the Grizzlies can go a long way toward pulling off the biggest upset of the NBA Playoffs with a win tonight at home against the #1 West seed Warriors. Any basketball team that can take out the San Antonio Spurs—no matter how Old or how Tired the defending NBA champs were—deserves some major respect and the way Los Angeles has dominated the Rockets so far means this series may be over quicker than we all anticipated (Clippers lead 2-1). And if you think Memphis can upend NBA Regular Season MVP Curry and Golden State, then take a look at the healthy series Price (Grizzlies +425, Warriors -550, GTBets) heading into Saturday night’s crucial Game 3 at the FedEx Center in Memphis. It really jumps out at me in terms of value as Memphis may have found the way to stop this offensive juggernaut and is now definitely taking up residence in the Warriors’ heads.

And, the Wizards, who play the Atlanta Hawks this afternoon (Saturday) in what could be a pivotal Game 3 at the Verizon Center in Washington, DC (ESPN, 5 p.m. ET/2 p.m. PT; Odds: Hawks -3½, Total: 198, GTBets), do realistically have an outside chance still of making some noise, but beating the East’s top-seeded Hawks, beating the Bulls-Cavaliers winner and then having to try to take out whomever emerges from the Western Conference is a bit much to ask in my mind, making the focus on those aforementioned key players from the Bulls, Clippers and Grizzlies as prime candidates to ultimately win this award, and with it backers of a Future bet on them a really profitable endeavor. And if I could choose just one right now, it would probably have to be athletic Clippers forward Griffin (12/1) although it’s very hard not to see the simplistic and potential beautiful value in taking a shot on one or all three of the Grizzlies players in this marketplace (Conley 40/1, Gasol 40/1 and Randolph 80/1). This Memphis team could easily shock the world this postseason.

NBA Finals MVP Picks: Blake Griffin 12/1 (32Red), Mike Conley 40/1 (Ladbrokes), Marc Gasol 40/1 (Ladbrokes)

NBA Round 2 Game 4 Pick: Bulls +2 over Cavaliers, Sunday (GTBets)

NBA Round 2 Series Picks: Grizzlies +425 over Warriors, Wizards +220 over Hawks, (GTBets)