Game 6 is here, so can the Warriors close things out, or will Cleveland force a Game 7 at home? Check this informative betting preview and cash in these free NBA Picks.
Andre Iguodala O/U 20 points, rebounds and assists
I decided to stay away from the alternate point spread for Game 6 because I’m sticking with what I know. What I know is that even with Draymond Green coming back, the Warriors are without Andrew Bogut, and they once again have a lineup decision. The formula that has seemed to work time and again is turning to the sixth man, Andre Iguodala.
Iguodala cashed the over for his prop wager in the first half alone last game, and once again he has a chance to start and put up big numbers in several different categories. While he may see fewer minutes with Green back, Harrison Barnes played horribly in Game 5, and if he doesn’t come to play again, Iguodala is going to have to step up even more.
So far in the playoffs, Iguodala has an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 55.6 percent and a Usage Rate of 13 percent. However, the story for Iguodala tonight will be whether he gets the same amount of assists and rebounds that he has seen over four of the five games of this series. He has also been the team’s third best assist rate player behind only Green and Stephen Curry, so while his assist numbers may drop tonight, as long as het gets to 10 total assists and rebounds, For one of our NBA picks I feel confident he will get 11 or more points, which he has also done in four of the five games in this series.
Free NBA Props Pick: Over 20 -115
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Tristan Thompson O/U 20.5 points and rebounds
A little talked about effect of the Andrew Bogut injury is that Tristan Thompson is going to be the biggest player on the court for most of the night. The Cavs’ big man is coming off a 15-rebound game, and with Bogut not clogging up the middle, blocking shots and grabbing boards, Thompson is going to be all over the place tonight.
The Warriors were already a bad rebounding team, and now without Bogut there is almost no chance Thompson doesn’t have double-digit rebounds tonight. However, his rebounding prop isn’t as valuable as this one from Bovada with -125 NBA odds for the over, so I am taking a bit of a risk with points and rebounds.
However, without Bogut, Thompson’s offensive rebounding is going to be off the charts, and he will almost certainly take most of those shots back up and not kick it out to an open teammate. Thompson still has the best offensive rebounding rate of any player this postseason, and he is about to improve on that tonight. I see a three or four dunks with 12-plus rebounds tonight from Thompson in a must win game for Cleveland.
So far in the playoffs, when Bogut is off the court, the Warriors’ opponents’ defensive rebounding rate goes up over four points. Look out tonight, Dubs.
My Pick: Over 20½ -115
Best Line Offered: at Bovada