NBA Capper Picks the Home Underdog Value on Heat +7.0 Over Spurs

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, March 31, 2015 1:56 PM GMT

Can the Heat continue their winning ways at home despite undermanned due to injuries? Can the Spurs stay red-hot and cover this big number on the road? We have the answers and much more.

Rematch of 2014 NBA Finals in South Beach
The Miami Heat will host the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET. The game will be televised nationally by TNT. According to the NBA betting odds, San Antonio is a 7.0 point favorite, and the posted total is 197.0. This will be the second meeting of the season between these teams, and San Antonio was a 98-85 home winner in the first encounter. That contest narrowly stayed under the total of 186.0. This will also be a rematch of the 2014 NBA Finals series won by San Antonio in five games.

 

Spurs rolling down the Home Stretch
San Antonio enters tonight’s game at Miami having won the last three, and six of their previous seven games. They were able to cover in all of those six wins, and their average margin of victory was 18.8 points per game. Their only loss during that sequence came at Dallas 101-94 a week ago today. Although the Spurs have gone under the total in each of their previous two contests, they’ve gone over the number in nine of their last thirteen overall. The Spurs have shot a very good 47% or better from the field in eleven of their last fourteen games.

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Heat Decimated by Injuries
If Miami ends up failing to qualify for the playoffs, injuries would assuredly be a major contributing factor. They currently have four players (Chris Anderson, Luol Deng, Michael Beasley, and Shabazz Napier) listed as questionable for tonight, in addition to losing Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts for the season. They will also be without the services of rookie Hassan Whiteside who’s been a pleasant surprise this season, and he’s out for an indefinite period of time due to a hand injury. The Heat is coming off a 109-102 home win over the Detroit Pistons on Sunday. It marked the first time in the last six games in which they failed to go under the total. The Heat are currently 7th overall in the Eastern Conference with nine games left to play.

 

Final Analysis
This appears to be a game that the red-hot Spurs team should win with ease versus an undermanned opponent like Miami. However, it’s never as easy as it looks on the majority of occasions in regards to sports betting. The Heat has the momentum of winning their last five, and eight of their previous nine games at home. Combining those results with the sizable number they’re receiving, creates a very nice home underdog value in my professional opinion. I’m going to lean toward the home side for one of my NBA picks on Tuesday.

Free NBA Pick: Play on Miami +7.0 over San Antonio at 5Dimes.