The West’s power has shifted this offseason, and now there are four to six teams with a legitimate shot at winning the conference. This makes predicting the playoff seeding very difficult, but it also gives us nice value in the NBA odds. Let’s take a look at my first projections for the NBA season, and see if there is any value in these odds to win the championship and the west. The NBA odds listed are for the NBA Title, and then the Western Conference, and they are all courtesy of TopBet.
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+650, +200)
I am a little concerned about Russell Westbrook’s knee still giving him some trouble, but there is still another month to go until this season, and Westbrook should be okay for the regular season. Even though I have them in here as the #1 seed, I think their future odds may be a little overvalued. Right now there are too many questions like a 3rd scoring option and their post presence to say they have value at +600 or +250.
- San Antonio Spurs (+1000, +375)
After coming seconds from winning it all, could the Spurs still be undervalued by the sportsbooks? They may not be at 10/1 to win the title, but at +375 to win the West they are on the edge of having value. While the west has gotten better, the Spurs are still one of the better teams in the conference, and they are still just as dangerous.
- Los Angeles Clippers (+1000, +500)
With Doc Rivers coming into coach an already very talented group, I think we have to finally consider the Clippers as title contenders. They added JJ Reddick, Matt Barnes and Jared Dudley to make a formidable bench unit for Rivers. While I am falling short of saying they have value, if they look good in the preseason, I’m willing to take a title shot wager in my NBA picks.
- Houston Rockets (+1000, +500)
The Rockets are priced the same as the Clippers from TopBet, and they are ahead of teams like the Warriors and Grizzlies. However I think that may be overvaluing the addition of Dwight Howard. Even though the Rockets may be the most improved team, I could see some Laker-like ATS struggles for the Rockets this season. I would fade to start the season.
- Golden State Warriors (+1800, +1000)
I think the Warriors could definitely get higher than 5, maybe as high as the 3 seed, but this team is reliant on a couple of injury prone players and a veteran with tons of miles on his tires. They could be under or overvalued to this point, and I think we have to wait until we see a small sample size before we can pass judgment.
- Memphis Grizzlies (+3000, +1200)
Despite what the sportsbooks may say, I think the Grizzlies may have the best value of any team in the West this season, and if they can replicate what they did last season, this team is going to be a monster ATS, and have some serious future odds value. I would be willing to take a stab on the Grizzlies to win the championship and the West. They are what the Detroit Pistons were ten years ago in the NBA, and even without a ‘true,” superstar, their team is good enough to beat anyone with their defense.
- Dallas Mavericks (+4500, +2000)
With the addition of Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon, the Mavs should be back in the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki should be in for another stat crushing year, but the Mavs will likely not be good enough defensively to beat better teams. While they may have some sports betting value ATS, I doubt it materializes into anything.
- New Orleans Pelicans (+10,000, +4000)
I believe another newcomer to the playoffs this season will be the Pelicans, who also may be the most improved team in the NBA. Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday already join a nice young team with Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. If they are all healthy (something Gordon and Davis were not last season) this team is easily a playoff team out West. They were very undervalued last season ATS, and I think they may be once again.
Don't forget to check out our companion piece on Eastern Conference Playoffs Future Odds!