NBA Betting: Warriors Way Overvalued On Futures Market

Jason Lake

Tuesday, December 27, 2016 2:47 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2016 2:47 PM UTC

The NBA odds have the Golden State Warriors favored over the field to win their championship back. The Dubs are good, but the advanced stats say they’re not that good.

Season Record: 4-1 ATS

I come here to praise the Warriors, not to bury them. How can you not like what the Dubs (27-5 SU, 14-17-1 ATS after Monday’s action) have done this year? Well, unless you’ve been betting on them. Golden State is 8-2 SU but 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games as too many people have jumped on the bandwagon.

You can see this dynamic playing out on the NBA futures market, too. The Warriors are available between -125 and -140 to win the title this season. That’s just cray-cray. The stat gurus over at FiveThirtyEight project Golden State at 45 percent to reclaim their championship; that works out to +122 using our wonderful SBR Betting Odds Converter.

Jurassic Park Is Frightening In The Dark

So are there any good NBA picks out there? Sure. How about the Toronto Raptors (22-8 SU, 20-9-1 ATS) at between +2150 and +3300? FiveThirtyEight has the Raps winning 13 percent of the time, which translates to +670. Or how about the Utah Jazz (18-13 SU, 16-14-1 ATS)? They’re pegged between +5500 and +8000 on the NBA odds board, but at 3 percent to win the title the Jazz “should” be closer to +3200.

Oh, and LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers (23-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS)? Don’t bother. They’re between +225 and +300 to defend their championship, but they’re projecting worse than the Raptors at just 10 percent, which works out to +900. This is not the betting value you’re looking for.

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