NBA Betting Value in Total as Suns Face Mavericks

Joe Catalano

Friday, December 5, 2014 5:03 PM GMT

Friday, Dec. 5, 2014 5:03 PM GMT

The veteran Dallas Mavericks (15-5) are off to a very fast start this season and tonight, the Mavs host another surprsingly good club against the Phoenix Suns (11-8). Dallas has won 5 straight games. Will they just roll over the Suns? See what we think as we provide our betting pick.

Tip-off is scheduled for tonight at 8:30 pm ET at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

Odds makers expect a lot of offense in this games as the betting total is listed at 215.5 and the Mavericks are a 5.5 point betting favorites on our NBA odds.

Giving a Full Effort
One thing that I realized from his time in New York is that Tyson Chandler dogged it on some nights. He played with the Mavericks championship team and was a major contributor, and then Chandler signs with the Knicks. New York was lucky to get half of the effort that Dallas is getting from Chandler and this far from a washed up basketball player. Chandler is coming off of a 20 rebound effort in a 107-105 victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday. In this game, he shot 8 of 10 from the field for 18 points and 20 rebounds. 

In his last 5 games, Chandler is averaging 14.2 points and 16.4 rebounds per game. He's shooting near 70% from the field. Of course, all of his baskets are from 10 feet or in from the basket, but these are still amazing numbers and he's one of the main reasons why Dallas isn't on the decline even with a veteran ball club.

 

Monta Ellis
With Monta Ellis on this team, the pressure is off an aging Dirk Nowitzki. He affords Dirk the ability to sit out for a game or play just less minutes in general.

Ellis leads the team at 20.7 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. He's not going to win any 3 point contests, but each player plays a role on the Mavs, and Ellis plays his particular role well. He can shoot from anything within 20 feet and is an 80% free throw shooter, making Dallas a difficult team to foul. In his last 2 games, Ellis is averaging 30.5 points per game. Look for Ellis to be a huge factor in what's expected to be high scoring affair.

 

Good But Not Great
The Phoenix Suns have two things working against them. They can't play defense, allowing 103.1 points per game and they don't have a legitimate big man. This is a team that would be dangerous with a good coach and a center picked up in a future NBA Draft. For now, you're going to see a lot of fast-paced, high scoring games in shootouts like tonight.

The Suns will look for Goran Dragic to have a repeat performance from the game that he played on Tuesday against the Indiana Pacers. Dragic scored 34 points on 5 of 6 shooting from 3-point range and managed 5 rebounds, 4 steals, and 3 assists. In his last 2 games, Dragic has averaged 28 points per game. He has been much more inconsistent this season as opposed to last year and Phoenix has payed the price. He should have a good game against a team like Dallas, but like I said, he's been unpredictable.

Dallas will get major effort on the glass and scoring points from the Morris Brothers. I had this one wrong as Marcus Morris was the better scorer in college, but Markieff has turned out to be the better pro. Regardless, this tandem has improved the Suns win total by a mile.

 

Outcome
Although Dallas has been unstoppable as of late, I prefer the total in this game for my NBA pick as I don't expect a lot of defense to be played.

NBA Pick - Dallas/ Phoenix Over 215.5 at 5 Dimes

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