NBA Betting Value: Pile-Up Winners With Our Prop Selections

Doug Upstone

Thursday, February 25, 2016 7:06 PM GMT

Have to say I prefer the new Thursday schedule from the Association, not just having two televised games and maybe one more. This is especially so when trying to place NBA prop bets.

With six games on the docket, we have far more choices for NBA picks and we are not stuck trying to find the proverbial needle in a haystack when we have games like Brooklyn and Phoenix tonight.

Let's get after the NBA odds with these prop wagers.

 

Warriors vs. Magic - Margin of Victory Bets on Golden State
For those reading this for the first time, some sportsbooks offer odds on margin of victory for either team to win and they are in segments of three points. (Ex. 1-3, 4-6 and 7-9 and so on) Golden State is a 8-point favorite on the road in Orlando and though the Warriors are winning, they have not looked infallible. This is to be expected over a long season no matter how good a team is. If you are a $100 per game bettor, for this prop I would think about four $25.00 wagers for Golden State margin of victory, with the points they could cover from -4 to -15. This gives us superior coverage for a team that is 19-12-1 ATS on the road and 13-1 and 9-4-1 ATS with no rest, winning by 11.2 points a game. The payouts are from +600 to +700, meaning the minimum would be $150 won, which is better than winning a straight bet of $110.00 to win $100 if correct.

Prop Play - Golden State to cover 1 of 4 Margin of Victory Wagers

 

Bucks vs. Celtics - Biggest Lead Over/Under 18.5 (-115)
If you review the recent history of the matchups between these Eastern Conference clubs, only one of the last five has been decided by more than 10 points. The games have been competitive throughout and mostly coming down to the last five minutes. With Milwaukee on an upswing of winning four of five, I don't see either team racing off to a sizeable lead and will suggest to play UNDER on either team building a 19-point lead at any point of this encounter.

Prop Play - Biggest Lead - Play Under

 

Rockets vs. Trail Blazers - Portland Over/Under 112.5 Points (-110)
Portland continues to blaze a trail in winning 11 of 12 and their offense has been scintillating in their past five contests averaging 118.4 PPG. Facing a Houston defense that is 27th in the NBA in surrendering 106.8 PPG would seem advantageous for the Blazers, especially when interim Rockets coach J.B. Bickerstaff refers to his team as "broken,". No doubt reaching a 113 points is no simple task, but when the game total is 210 or higher and the road teams is off a close loss by three points or less, against opponent having scored 100 points or more in three straight contests, the visitor (Houston) has averaged permitting 114.1 PPG in last 51 such occurrences.

Prop Play - Portland Over 112.5 points

 

Spurs vs. Jazz- First Half Spread 1.5
San Antonio has regained their swagger after being mauled by the L.A. Clippers right after the break. The Spurs have taken three consecutive road games as their -Rodeo Trip - continues in Utah this evening. San Antonio is a three-point favorite, which makes them a 1.5-point fave for the first half against the Jazz. The Spurs enter this affair 30-12 ATS against the first half line off a road win the last two years, with average halftime lead of 7.1 points. This club is not the Spurs teams of a few years ago, now much younger and when playing without rest, they are 11-0 SU, winning by 13.2 PPG, thus ready to beat a short number. With Utah having won two of three, they are 6-14 ATS at halftime of next contest, trailing by four points.

Prop Play - Spurs -1.5 for First Half