NBA Betting Trends Suggest That Pistons & Heat Will Go 'Under' 202

Jake Walker

Tuesday, April 5, 2016 5:21 PM GMT

The Detroit Pistons (41-36) travel to the American Airlines Center to take on the Miami Heat (44-32). The Heat are favored by 4 points on the NBA odds board and the total is set at 202.

Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons have won two of their last three games, including a crucial 94-90 road victory against the Chicago Bulls last Saturday. Reggie Jackson led the way for the Pistons with 22 points and Tobias Harris added 21 points and seven rebounds to help their team prevail despite Jimmy Butler's first career triple-double (28 points, 17 rebounds and 12 assists).

The Pistons average 101.9 points per game (17th in the league) and shoot 43.9 percent from the floor and 34.2 percent from three-point range and they pull down 46.4 rebounds per game (third in the NBA). Detroit allows 101.2 points per game (12th in the league) and their opponents shoot 46.0 percent overall and 35.3 percent from beyond the arc and grab 42.6 rebounds per game.

Reggie Jackson leads the team with 18.5 points and 6.3 assists, Andre Drummond averages 16.5 points and team-bests with 14.9 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks and Tobias Harris adds 16.5 points and 6.1 rebounds.

 

Miami Heat
The Miami Heat went 1-2 on their recent Western Conference road trip. They're coming off a 110-93 loss against the Trail Blazers last Saturday. Dwyane Wade missed his second consecutive game due to neck issues and he's questionable for tonight. Hassan Whiteside stepped up for the Heat on Saturday, leading the team with 20 points, 13 rebounds and four blocks off the bench, but Miami let Portland shoot 62 percent from beyond the arc while they made only 31 percent of their three-point attempts. 

The Heat average 99.7 points per game on 46.9 percent shooting overall (fourth in the league) and 33.7 percent from beyond the arc and they grab 44.1 rebounds per game (14th in the NBA). Defensively, Miami gives up 98.5 points per game (fourth in the league) and their opponents shoot 44.2 percent from the floor (ninth in the NBA) and 35.0 percent from three-point range and pull down 41.3 rebounds per game.

Dwyane Wade leads the Heat with 19.2 points and 1.1 steals, Hassan Whiteside is averaging 14.1 points and team-bests with 11.8 rebounds and 3.7 blocks and Goran Dragic adds 13.8 points and a team-best 5.9 assists.

 

Betting Trends
The Under is 21-16 is Detroit's games as an underdog, 21-16 in Detroit's road games, 10-3 when Detroit is playing with 2 days rest and 15-13 in Detroit's games in the second half of the season.

The Under is 43-32 in all of Miami's games this season, 26-21 when Miami is a favorite, 22-16 in Miami's home games, 19-10 after the Heat played a non-conference game and 23-15 when Miami is playing a team with a winning record.

 

Final Analysis
The Heat are a 4-point favorite on the NBA odds board and the total has been set at 202. The Pistons have a two-game lead over the Bulls for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with five games left while the Heat are tied with the Hornets for fifth place, just a half game behind the Celtics. 

The Pistons lead the season series with the Heat 2-0, including a 93-92 win at Miami on December 22. This is a must-win game for both teams, but I don't see the Heat risking Wade, so he'll probably not play tonight. Even if Wade plays, he will be limited. The two meetings between these two teams went Under and the Under is 4-0 in Detroit's last four games.The Pistons scored 95 points or less in those contests while the Under is 3-1 in Miami's last four games. I like Detroit & Miami to go Under 202.5 for one of my NBA picks.

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NBA Pick: Under 202
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker