NBA Betting Trends: Plays To Make & Teams To Fade Post All Star Break

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, February 13, 2016 8:52 PM GMT

Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016 8:52 PM GMT

Our NBA analyst provides us with an extensive betting report at this halfway point of the season. Go inside to find out what teams are the moneymakers, and which have drained the bank.

Reviewing NBA Betting Trends at the All-Star Break
We’ve reached the NBA All-Star break, and it’s as good a time as any to review some betting trends which have transpired thus far in this 2015-2016 campaign. I’ll take a look at the best home favorites, home underdogs, road favorites, and road underdogs. Contrarily, I’ll also illustrate the worst teams in each of those four categories.

 

Best Overall ATS
San Antonio Spurs (33-18 ATS):
This one is certainly no surprise. The Spurs have the second best overall record (43-8) in the NBA. There’s a bit of a red flag of late. The Spurs have gone just 3-8 ATS in its last eleven games, despite winning nine of those contests straight up. Ordinarily I would advise bettors to beware when this veteran laden team is playing on no rest. However, they’ve gone a stellar 7-2 ATS in that role this season.

Golden State Warriors (30-18 ATS): The expletives that can be used when discussing Golden State’s performance this season are endless. They not only possess a NBA best 48-4 record, Golden State has been a money maker despite being installed as a favorite in 46 of 48 games, and that includes being an 8.0 point chalk or more during 75% of its contests.

Denver Nuggets (29-21 ATS): Denver making this list is a bit of a surprise to say the least. After all, they’re just 22-32 thus far. The Nuggets have been a huge cash cow over the past four weeks, going 14-3 ATS during its last seventeen games, despite going just 9-8 straight up. Based on their current record, the Nuggets figure to be cast into the role of an underdog more often than not during the last two months of the regular season. They’re potentially one the best betting values in the coming weeks.

Boston Celtics (30-22 ATS): Similar to Denver, Boston has been a personal ATM machine for bettors in recent weeks, going 12-5 ATS over their previous seventeen games.

 

Best Home Favorites
Detroit Pistons (12-5 ATS): Raise your hand if you predicted Detroit would possess the best ATS winning percentage as a home favorite at the all star break. Now please put it down because you’re a pathological liar. Detroit is an even better 6-0 ATS this season as a home favorite of 5.0 or more.

San Antonio Spurs (19-9 ATS): The Spurs have gone an incredible 28-0 at home this season, and covered on 67.9% of those occasions. Describing them as dominant at home is about as newsworthy as snow falling in Alaska.

Dallas Mavericks (11-7 ATS): If you picked the correct straight up winner in Dallas home games this season, it would have produced a 17-1 ATS record. That’s certainly something to keep in mind going forward when making your NBA picks.

 

Best Road Favorites
Miami Heat (7-1 ATS): The Heat have been money as a road chalk, and are a perfect 5-0 ATS when they’re a favorite of 1.5 or more.

Golden State Warriors (16-8 ATS): Inflated numbers have caught up with the Warriors a bit in this role. Golden State is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as a road favorite.

San Antonio Spurs (14-7 ATS): The beat goes on with San Antonio. And there’s no sense in being redundant.

Los Angeles Clippers (12-6 ATS): The Clippers have won eleven straight road games, including going 7-1 ATS in its last eight. Who needs Blake Griffin anyway?

 

Best Home Underdogs
Utah Jazz (5-1 ATS): The Jazz can be an extremely frustrating team to play, and that’s been especially evident on their home floor. They’re allowing just 93.4 points per game at home. A lot of its stellar defensive numbers are enhanced by their deliberate offensive pace.

Orlando Magic (9-4 ATS): Orlando has covered 69.2% of the time as a home underdog this season, and that’s despite going just 5-8 during those contests. Five of those eight losses came by 3 points or less.

Dallas Mavericks (5-3 ATS): The only thing surprising here is that Dallas has been a home underdog eight times already this season. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS during their last five in this role.

 

Best Road Underdogs
Cleveland Cavaliers (4-1 ATS): It’s a small sample size but very profitable nonetheless. You may be surprised to know that Cleveland lost four of these five games straight up.

Denver Nuggets (18-8 ATS): The Nuggets covering 69.2% of their 26 games as a road underdog this season borders on shocking. They’ve covered six consecutive times in this role, and are 8-1 ATS during its last nine.

Boston Celtics (8-4 ATS): The Celtics wouldn’t be a bad money line play as a road underdog as well, considering they won seven of these twelve games outright.

New York Knicks (14-8 ATS): As dysfunctional a franchise as the Knicks have been, they somehow have been a substantial money maker as a road underdog this season. However, after starting a perfect 7-0 ATS in this role, they’ve gone just 7-8 ATS since.

Minnesota Timberwolves (14-8 ATS): Everything I just said about the Knicks can be repeated here. As a matter of fact, Minnesota began the season by covering their first nine games as a road underdog, and won six of those contests outright. Since that hot start, they’re 6-8 ATS in the last fourteen, including 1-13 straight up.

 

Worst Overall ATS
Oklahoma City Thunder (22-32 ATS): This is somewhat surprising since the Thunder has an outstanding 40-14 record. Surprisingly it hasn’t been as a big chalk where they’ve had difficulty covering. They’re 11-10 ATS as a favorite of 10.0 or more, and just 11-22 ATS in the rest of its games.

Chicago Bulls (19-33 ATS): The majority of this ATS futility has come in recent weeks. Since 1/9/2016, Chicago has gone 4-14 ATS and 5-13 straight up.

Phoenix Suns (21-33 ATS): There’s been nothing good happening with the Suns since star point guard Eric Bledsoe was lost to a season ending knee injury. Since 12/20/2015, Phoenix has gone 2-24, and that includes a bankroll depleting 8-18 ATS.

Houston Rockets (21-34 ATS): First there was the firing of head coach Kevin McHale, and now reports that Houston is a broken team. In any event, they’ve certainly been a vast underachiever.

 

Worst Home Favorites
Minnesota Timberwolves (3-9 ATS): How a team that’s gone 17-37 this season could be a home favorite twelve times is the biggest surprise of all. Obviously the NBA odds at major online sportsbooks missed their marks when gauging Minnesota to start the season. They were 0-6 ATS in their first six and 1-8 ATS during their initial nine as a home favorite.

Chicago Bulls (7-14 ATS): They began by going 1-9 as a home favorite to start the year, and have gone a respectable 6-5 ATS since that time.

Houston Rockets (9-15 ATS): I’ve already alluded to Houston’s issues earlier. On a more encouraging note, they’re a somewhat decent 5-4 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite.

 

Worst Road Favorites
Detroit Pistons (2-7 ATS): The Pistons were our best home favorite, but they haven’t followed suit as a road chalk.

Oklahoma City Thunder (6-13 ATS): For a team that has a superb .741 winning percentage at this juncture, Oklahoma City has been a huge fade when it comes to point spread betting. Their 122-106 win and cover at Phoenix on Monday snapped an abysmal 0-8 ATS streak as a road favorite.

Cleveland Cavaliers (7-14 ATS): The defending Eastern Conference champions have been a bit overvalued on the road. They failed to cover their first five games as a road favorite this season.

 

Worst Home Underdogs
Sacramento Kings (3-6 ATS): At one point, the Kings were a somewhat respectable 19-23, and had won five straight games. Since that time, they’ve dropped eight of its last ten, and are 1-9 ATS during that stretch. The only thing that comes to mind when looking at their record as a home underdog, how have they been in this role just nine times?

New York Knicks (4-9 ATS): For a team that’s been very profitable as a road underdog, the same can’t be said when they play that same character at home.

Brooklyn Nets (12-17 ATS): The Nets have been an underdog in 29 of 31 home games this season. They’ve gone an awful 6-14 ATS in its last 20 as a home underdog.

 

Worst Road Underdogs
Oklahoma City Thunder (1-4 ATS): I’ve had enough of discussing the trials and tribulations of Oklahoma City, and I’m sure you’re tired of reading about it at this point.

Phoenix Suns (6-16 ATS): This just in, the Suns stink! How about 0-8 ATS in their last eight and 1-12 ATS in its previous thirteen as a road underdog. It’s right on the tip of my tongue, here’s the word, futility!

Chicago Bulls (6-11 ATS): Local bookmakers taking illegal bets in Chicago are making a fortune these days. One man’s pain is another’s gain.

Utah Jazz (6-11 ATS): For whatever reason, Utah has chosen to let opponents dictate the pace in its away games, and they’ve done little to prevent it. The proof is in the pudding, playing at a faster pace isn’t in their best interest.

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