NBA Betting Trend to Continue: Pick 'Under' in Mavericks vs. Warriors

Ross Benjamin

Friday, March 6, 2015 1:51 PM GMT

Friday, Mar. 6, 2015 1:51 PM GMT

This NBA handicapper examines tonight’s NBA ESPN national telecast between Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors. Our area of concentration will focus on the total in this contest.

NBA ESPN National Telecast Dallas/Golden State
A couple of NBA Western Conference rivals square off on Friday when the Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks at 10:35 PM ET. The game will be televised by ESPN. According to the NBA betting odds at 5Dimes, Golden State is a 10.5 point favorite, and the posted total is 208.5. These teams have met twice this season, and the Warriors won both contests.

 

Both Teams playing on the Low Side of the Number
The Dallas Mavericks have seen each of their previous nine games stay under the total, including Thursday's against the Blazers. Those games had an average total of 203.2 and saw just 187.8 points combined scored per contest. Dallas has failed to reach the 100-point plateau in eight of their last ten games, and averaged only 93.3 points scored per contest during that time. The good news, they’ve held opponents to only 95.5 points per game scored during that ten game stretch. The Mavericks low scoring offensive outputs aren’t necessarily linked to poor shooting. Dallas averages 86 field goal attempts per game this season. However, they’ve had 82 or less attempts in five of the last six, and seven of their previous ten games. Dallas has also limited opponents to an average of 80.4 field goal attempts per contest over the last five games. These numbers clearly indicate that the Mavericks have made a concerted effort to slow the tempo in the past couple of weeks, and for whatever reason the books have been reluctant in adjusting the totals to combat their recent string of low scoring affairs.

The Golden State Warriors have gone under the total in four of their previous five, and nine of their last eleven games. The Warriors are a vastly underrated defensive team which has been overshadowed by their high scoring offensive play. Despite allowing opponents an average of 87 field goal attempts per game, the Warriors are allowing 99.9 points per outing during the 2014-2015 NBA season. They’ve also limited opponents to a paltry 42.6% shooting from the floor. Tonight will be the Warriors sixth game in the last nine days. A grueling recent schedule such as this, coming so late in the year, likely will produce tired legs, and that’s usually a recipe for a less than stellar shooting performance.

 

NBA Betting System
The total in this game opened at 211.0 and quickly plummeted to 208.5. It’s a rare occasion that the general public comes in with a barrage of wagers on an under this early, and I’m more inclined to think that major sportsbooks have seen some very sharp money wagered on this total already. My professional intuition leads me to believe this game will play on the low side of the number, and that’s what I intend to do with one of my NBA picks for Friday.

NBA Picks: Play on Dallas and Golden State to go under the total of 208.5 at 5Dimes

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