Game 5 Will Go 'Over' Because…
The Heat have to get their offense going. At this point, it’s pretty clear that they can’t get stops. The Spurs are averaging 106 points per game in this series, and after playing two games in Miami where the Heat defense couldn’t do much, it’s obvious that Miami’s only recourse is to score more. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh took Game 4 off, so look for them to get things going in Game 5, and help out LeBron James.
The Spurs are going to do their share as they’ll be at or near 100 points. They’ve now done it in four straight games. The only question is if the Heat can help out. With the series on the line, the answer is likely yes, which means we’ll get the over.
Game 5 Will Go 'Under' Because…
The Heat are finished. This is a team that’s had their will broken and they aren’t going to put up much of a fight. They’ve won the NBA title twice in a row now and it’s become clear it’s not happening a third time. They’re a team that’s just quit. They averaged 89 points per game in the last two contests at home. Are they really going to do any better on the road in San Antonio?
That leaves you wondering whether the Spurs can carry the load. If Miami’s at about 93 points (they’ve averaged 92.8 in the series), can the Spurs get to about 105 or 106 points to hit the over. It’s unlikely. They should have another monster lead in this one and they’ll call off the dogs.
Outlook & Pick
The Spurs offense can’t be stopped but the Heat offense can’t get going. That’s a problem for the over. We’re not sure that the Heat will contribute enough to the cause. That being the case, take the 'under' in this one for your basketball pick.
Free NBA Pick: 'Under' 197 at 5Dimes sportsbook.