NBA Betting: Take Raptors With The Points Against Spurs To Cash In

Jason Lake

Saturday, April 2, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

Saturday, Apr. 2, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

The San Antonio Spurs have yet to lose at home this season. They probably won't lose to the Toronto Raptors Saturday night, but will the Spurs beat the NBA odds?

Eventually, the San Antonio Spurs are going to lose a home game. It hasn't happened yet this season; the Spurs are 38-0 SU and 23-15 ATS on their own court. Game No. 39 is Saturday night (8:30 p.m. ET) against the Toronto Raptors, who should be on rubbery legs after fighting back to beat the Memphis Grizzlies (+5.5 at home) 99-95 on Friday, while San Antonio was idle. Will the Raptors become the 1 in 38-1?


Maybe. As we go to press late Friday night, there haven't been any lines posted for this matchup on the NBA odds. Strange. We don't have any reports of injuries from the Raps-Grizz game, and David West is the only player considered even slightly iffy for San Antonio. Maybe we're just at the point where anyone on the Spurs is a potential candidate for a maintenance day. I doubt they care much about finishing the season undefeated at home.

Give It a Rest
Well, as they say back in my homeland, when life gives you lemons, kick life in the balls and make up your own point spread:
FiveThirtyEight (CARM-Elo): San Antonio –11
Basketball-Reference (SRS): San Antonio –10.34

Shut the front door, really? That is a gigantic point spread. But that's how well the Spurs (63-12 SU, 43-32 ATS) have played this year. And that's how weak the top of the Eastern Conference is this year. No offense to the Raptors (51-24 SU, 40-35 ATS), who are on the ascendancy and are doing pretty much all the right things. They're just not nearly as good as San Antonio right now.

But again, that depends on which players suit up Saturday – for either team. The Spurs have been known to give their veterans multiple days off, because it's just smart. Why play Tim Duncan (17.4 PER, +4.7 BPM) or Tony Parker (16.7 PER, +0.5 BPM) or Manu Ginobili (17.9 PER, +3.7 PER) against Toronto? For that matter, the Raptors don't have much to gain from pushing their top players in this road game; Kyle Lowry (22.7 PER, +7.0 BPM) just played 36 minutes against Memphis, and his elbow has been bothering him lately.

Let's set that aside for now and look at the season series between these two teams. We have a massive sample size of one game to work with: On December 9, the Raptors beat the Spurs 97-94 as 6-point home dogs. Both teams played what would be the same lineups they'll play this Saturday, if everyone who's healthy is made available. Okay, we don't know for certain about West (17.4 PER, +3.1 BPM) after he missed Wednesday's 100-92 win over the New Orleans Pelicans (+19 away), but it looks like that was just another maintenance day. Let's assume the Spurs hand out some more free passes, and make the Raptors our blind NBA pick here at the home office.

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Free NBA Pick: Toronto +10½ -110
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

Jason's 2015-16 record as of April 1: 30-35-1 ATS, 6-3-1 Total

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