NBA Betting: Raptors vs. Pacers To Go 'Under' In Game 6

Jason Lake

Thursday, April 28, 2016 4:58 PM GMT

Thursday, Apr. 28, 2016 4:58 PM GMT

The Indiana Pacers coughed up Game 5 to the Toronto Raptors, but they still beat the NBA odds. They'll have to do better than that in Game 6 if they want to survive.

Jason's 2015-16 record as of April 28: 36-40-1 ATS, 9-4-1 Total

 

That might have been the damndest basketball game I've ever seen. The Indiana Pacers absolutely crushed it in the first quarter of Tuesday's Game 5 versus the Toronto Raptors, hitting 7-of-10 from downtown to open up a 35-20 lead. Then Toronto went on a run. Then Indiana went on a run. Then the Raptors outscored the Pacers 25-9 in the fourth to win 102-99, after Solomon Hill's potential game-tying three left his fingertips just a few nanoseconds late.


Indiana still cashed in as a 7.5-point road dog on the closing line. More importantly for our purposes, this game went 'Over' the posted total of 194.5, dang it to heck. So what are we going to do about Friday's Game 6 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBA-TV) at the Fieldhouse? Do we stick with the 'Under', which is 26-12 in the playoffs heading into Thursday's action? Or should we go back to the point spread with the Pacers laying two points on our NBA odds board?


 

Do the Right Thing
First, let's give some dap to Toronto's head coach Dwane Casey, who made the tough-but-necessary decision to put Patrick Patterson (10.6 PER, +1.0 BPM) in the starting lineup at power forward, leaving Luis Scola (13.6 PER, –1.2 BPM) on the bench for the duration. It didn't pan out; Patterson was a minus-20 on the day, and never did seem comfortable out there. That's partly because DeMarre Carroll (11.9 PER, +0.2 BPM) was limited by foul trouble. Those two have meshed very well together in the recent past.

Meanwhile, DeMar DeRozan (21.5 PER, +1.4 BPM) broke out of his shooting slump with 34 points on 10-of-22 from the floor. However, Kyle Lowry (22.1 PER, +6.8 BPM) shot 3-of-11 for 14 points, and as a team, the Raps were 6-of-26 from behind the arc. There's no way they should have won Game 5.

 

The Madness of King George
Actually, there was one way: Wait until Paul George (20.9 PER, +4.6 BPM) needed to take a breather. George has been the best player in this series by a fair margin, and he was killing it on Tuesday, scoring 39 points on 11-of-19 shooting while posting a plus-15 for Indiana. If my math is right, that means Toronto was plus-18 in the seven minutes George sat on the bench.

So again, what do we do for our NBA picks? The first consensus numbers on our board show an even 50/50 split for both the spread and the 194.5-point total. But that total opened as high as 196 points, so we're assuming the early action was on the 'Under'. Things could get really hot under the collar Friday night at the Fieldhouse. We'll stay the course for now, and may the sphere be with you.
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Free NBA Pick: 'Under' 194.5 (-110)
Best Line Offered: at GTBets

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