This sports handicapper has been a bit surprised by the lack of scoring by the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals but still is going to back the over for Sunday's NBA Picks.
After NBA odds makers have made the total of these games in the upper 190’s now we get a more logical line set at 190. I had placed my NBA pick over the total in game two and I am going to back that again here in game three. So far in the post season the Cavs lowest total at home has been right at 190, and I think the Hawks are due to break out of their recent funk like scoring only 33 points in the second half of game two.
Live and Die by the Three
Atlanta is way behind their season numbers for three point shooting averaging only 20% from beyond the arc so far in this series. Attempts are not that far off, on the season they averaged 26 three point attempts per game and in this series they attempted 23 and 26, but they simply are not falling. On the season they were second in the league in three point shooting percentage at 37%. I understand it will be difficult without Korver but they still have guys that can shoot from distance with four them over 30% on the season.
Cleveland Will Get Out and Run...Hawks Should Join
Most of Cleveland’s offensive numbers go up at home naturally. The Hawks though are pretty even keel stat wise at home or on the road. The Cavs are averaging over 100 points at home in the playoffs and despite the recent downswing offensively the Hawks are averaging 101 points on the road. In order for Atlanta to get back into this series I think their best chance is to get into a transition contest with the Cavs. They are a good defensive team but I think they know they must start to pick things up offensively and push the pace.
I am looking for a change of tactics in game three. The number is set in proportion to the two first games but I like for the Cavs to take advantage of the home crowd energy where they can be deadly on the offensive end and push tempo. My prediction is the Hawks will join them in an up and down contest in this crucial game three for the Hawks.
NBA Picks: Over 190 at Bovada