NBA Betting: Major Injury Makes Grizzlies Good Fade Target At Raptors

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 30, 2016 12:38 AM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2016 12:38 AM UTC

The Memphis Grizzlies won't have point guard Mike Conley for a while, and they'll be hard-pressed to beat the NBA odds Wednesday night at the super-deep Toronto Raptors. Season NBA picks record: 1-0.

We're already off to a hot start here at the ranch. Our first NBA pick of the new season cashed in when the Toronto Raptors (+4 away on the closing line) beat the Houston Rockets 115-102. Now we get another opportunity to ride the Dinos on Wednesday when they host the Memphis Grizzlies, tipping off at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. The Grizz are 10-point puppies on the NBA odds board as we go to press, and Conley has just been ruled out indefinitely with a transverse process fracture in his back. Stampede!

Were you able to get the Raptors at -10? That price probably won't last, but it's a bargain with Conley (+6.4 BPM) on the shelf. He's been playing lights-out this year, especially on offense, where Conley's been good for 21.5 points and 6.4 assists per 36 minutes. Plan B for Memphis is rookie Wade Baldwin IV (-3.9 BPM), who has struggled in limited action. Shooting guard Andrew Harrison (-1.6 BPM) will also see his minutes go up in Conley's absence.

Big Bang Bebe

Before the injury announcement, FiveThirtyEight projected the Raptors (11-6 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) projected to win Wednesday's game 80 percent of the time, for an Elo-based point spread of Toronto -8.5. The betting value has shifted north of the border now that Conley is out. He's not the only problem for the Grizzlies (11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS); they might also have to do without Zach Randolph (-3.1 BPM) and former Raps great Vince Carter (+0.6 BPM).

Not that the Raptors are completely healthy themselves. Jonas Valanciunas (-0.1 BPM) tweaked his left ankle in Monday's 122-95 cakewalk over the Philadelphia 76ers (+15 away) and could sit out Wednesday's game -- though he says he's fine. But the Raptors have depth with young bigs Lucas Nogueira (+6.1 BPM) and Jakob Poeltl (-0.9 BPM), and Nogueira has been an absolute beast down low, swatting 3.5 shots per 36 minutes with those telescopic arms of his.

Toronto has oodles of depth at every other position on the floor, too, so this figures to be an especially difficult matchup for Memphis. If the Raps are still available anywhere near -10 by the time you read this, consider hopping on board and may the sphere be with you.

NBA Free Pick: Raptors -10Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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