Let's start a new week by digging into NBA prop bets from what is a pretty hefty card for a Monday looking to knock down more winners against the sportsbooks and build that bankroll.
With each article we will provide four to five choices for NBA picks, but would not necessarily go all in because this market is quite volatile and how a game might play out is far different than a quarter or half against the NBA odds. Case in point was yesterday's choice of Golden State to reach 30 points in first quarter. The Warriors and New York were both off in first 12 minutes, with Golden State trailing 20-18. In the final three quarters, Steph Curry and company scored 98 points, well above the 30 average, it was just a matter of timing.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers - First Teams to 20 points
Good coaching adjustments by Tyronn Lue has Cleveland quickening the pace, improving ball movement, taking advantage of matchups and they have been scoring 115 points a contest in their last four outings, shooting over 50 percent. This bodes well for them to get after a good start and if you have followed LeBron James teams in his career, when they get in a good groove, that is the time to back them for betting purposes. Also, this is a different Indiana team for the past several years, which is not nearly as active defensively.
Prop Play: Cavaliers score 20 points first
Pistons vs. Nets - Nets Over/Under 97.5 (-110) Total Points
The actual total of this game has dropped two points to 202, which we happen to agree with. The culprit is Brooklyn, drawing ever closer to Philadelphia for the league's worst offense (94.9 PPG) in averaging 93.3 PPG in their past six contests. In some cases this might be free-flowing non-defensive contest, however, Detroit has lost four of six and the last two and we would expect them to be more focused than usual. Also, the Nets lost by two at New Orleans Saturday and is 18-4 UNDER after a loss by six points or less, averaging 94.6 PPG.
Prop Play: Nets Under 97.5
Pistons vs. Nets - Pistons Margin of Victory
Certain sportsbooks will also have this prop and what caught my eye was the range value. Margin of victory is normally in three point increments, as Detroit in this case would list as 1-3, 4-6, 7-9 etc. The book I saw had the Pistons at +700, in three ranges of 4-to-12 points at +700 (4-6, 7-9, and 10-12), which is to me is an indicator of where they think the score could fall. I have this outcome power-rated at Detroit -6 or -7 and the Sagarin Ratings have at -4.5. Say a one unit wager for you is $60.00. Divide this into three bets ($20 ea. ), take the three price points of 4-12 and if correct in this range, you just picked up $140, doubling your expenditure, while lower risk on a typical wager.
Prop Play: Pistons Margin of Victory 4-to-12 Range (3 bets)
Magic vs. Spurs - Largest Lead Over/Under 19.5 Points (-115)
San Antonio for a second time was beat up rather badly, once at Golden State by 30 and at Cleveland Saturday by 14, in game that was not that close. The Spurs bounced back after the Warriors at home winning by 31 over Houston and with Orlando off first victory in quick turnaround revenge spot with Boston at home yesterday for first victory in nine contests, not difficult to imagine San Antonio can lay the lumber. The fact remains they are already a 16-point favorite, thus, not asking them to do a lot more at any point than what they are presumed to accomplish over the Magic.
Prop Play: Spurs Over 19.5
Wizards vs. Thunder - Kevin Durant Over/Under 27.5 Points (-115)
Oklahoma City has won 17 of its past 19 home games, is 25-5 record since Dec. 6th and is averaging 109.6 points. Leading the way has been Kevin Durant, especially lately, being in a good comfort zone, totaling 34 PPG in his past four contests. With the Washington defense 24th in points allowed at 104.8 PPG and known this season for having problems guarding wing players off the dribble and shooting from distance, KD should reach benchmark and score over 30 again.
Prop Play: Durant Over 27.5