Since NBA playoffs are all seven game series with no team playing more than two games in a row in their own building, having home court advantage isn’t as important as say, in the NFL odds.
However, it is still an important factor in deciding things like a series winner, or even an NBA champion. That being said, it’s hard to decipher between teams who do well at home in the playoffs versus teams who do better or worse on the road, because things change so much year to year. Players change, coaches change, and even the style of play between these two teams change.
What we can look at is last year’s results, which could give us a better idea of what could happen this season. We can even take into account some of the regular season’s matchups to determine whom could be a good bet on the NBA odds boards and when in these upcoming NBA playoffs.
The Warriors at home vs. on the road
Last season Golden State was 11-10 ATS in the playoffs on the road to their NBA championship. This season however, after breaking the Bulls season wins record and looking dominant throughout the entire regular season, this team is bound to be overvalued heading into the playoffs.
Since after the All Star Break, Golden State was only 14-16 ATS, and they were 8-8 ATS when playing at home. Last season in the playoffs, the Warriors were much better on the road ATS than they were at home, going 6-4 ATS in their 10 road games, and only 5-6 ATS when playing at home. While Golden State was 2-1 ATS at home in the NBA Finals, they were 3-5 ATS in the first three rounds when playing at home.
Best Playoff ATS Teams
Here is a look at the best ATS teams since the 2011 playoffs.
Golden State 25-15 ATS
Memphis 22-15 ATS
Houston 17-12 ATS
San Antonio 38-27 ATS
Miami 38-28 ATS
Other than Miami, who of course had LeBron James during all of those games, these teams are all in the West. While it’s going to be tough for the Rockets to win anything against the Warriors this year, the series to watch will be the Spurs and Grizzlies.
These two teams have had some epic playoff series in the past, and even though Memphis is banged up and the Spurs are better than ever, this is going to be a hard-fought series, and it would not surprise me to see the Grizzlies play well enough to cover some high spreads.
For instance, Memphis is a +14 ½ underdog in their first game against the NBA pick San Antonio, and even with all their injuries that could be too high for a playoff game.
Home Court Means Something
If there is one thing home court advantage gives you is some confidence, because the last three NBA champions have been one of the top ranked teams from either conference. The Heat, Spurs and Warriors – the last three NBA champions – have all been the number one overall seed in the NBA, which of course guarantees them home court advantage in the NBA Finals.
So, if the trend holds true for this season’s playoffs, then you should probably bet on the Warriors to defend their title. However, they spent a lot of energy getting to the 73-win mark, and a team like the Spurs is tough, and if the Cavs aren’t injured, they will be tough too. It’s surely going to be a great playoffs.