After a night of last night, I am still cruising with my prop picks in the conference finals. Let’s see if I can keep the momentum going here tonight in Game 6.
Kevin Durant O/U 2 three pointers made
There are certain athletes that are too good to go through prolonged shooting slumps. Kyle Lowry showed that in the latter few games of the Eastern Conference Finals, and Kevin Durant is about to show it tonight. While Durant has been pretty good from the floor in this series, he hasn’t been as good as Durant gets. In fact, he has an Effective Field Goal percentage of only 40 percent in his last two games, and he is only shooting 29.6 percent from beyond the three-point line in the Western Conference Finals.
Durant is too good of a shooter to continue to not knock down threes, and tonight as the Thunder head home to try and close out the Warriors, I believe Durant is due.
While he has not been attempting as many threes, he shot 11 of them in Game 5, and if that kind of volume is there again, there is little to no way he falls under two three-pointers made. At the very least he should push this prop, and that is one of the reasons I feel comfortable recommending and betting it this evening.
Durant shot 41 percent from three-point land at home during the regular season, compared to only 36.4 percent on the road. During the playoffs, he is shooting only 26 percent from beyond the arc, but in a gamer where they are going to need his outside shooting, I see Durant going over on this one.
My Pick: OVER 2 (-145) @ Bovada
Serge Ibaka O/U 18.5 points and rebounds
From what I can tell with certain players this postseason, the phrase “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” has not been heard by the sportsbooks in some time. Well, I have heard the phrase many times, and I am going to use it once again here tonight as Serge Ibaka heads back home. At only 18 ½ points and rebounds, Ibaka’s total for this prop is a steal of a value.
Ibaka played a playoff high 40 minutes in Game 5, and the Thunder are going to need another 35-plus if they want to win this game. Ibaka at both big man positions has been crucial for the Thunder, and even though he didn’t play a lot of center in Game 5, he still snagged eight rebounds. He now has at least seven rebounds in all five of these conference finals games, and he is averaging 8.4 per game.
His points have also continued to be steady even since the Thunder started going smaller at times in Game 3. He is averaging 15 points per game alone in the last three games, and if we get another game from him where he has 15 points, there is no way he doesn’t cash the over tonight. I see a big game from Ibaka, who finally started hitting some threes in Game 5 as well. If everything comes together for him again, look for the over to cash, because it’s easily my best play of the night.
My Pick: OVER 18.5 (-125) @ Bovada