Above .500 Teams Domination
If you were to have placed a bet, the best thing to do was to bet on the teams with the best SU records, because they delivered by covering the spread. The one exception to that was the Miami Heat.
Miami was just 37-43-2 against the spread, and this can be easily explained. They are the 2-time defending NBA Champions, and odds makers created them as heavy betting favorites at home and on the road, because a bettor’s worst fear is fading a team like the Heat with Lebron James on it.
As for the rest of the teams, the top 12 teams ATS also had winning records SU.
Phoenix Suns 48-34 SU, 51-29-2 ATS
The Suns not only had the best record against the spread, but they were the biggest surprise of the NBA. This possibly influenced odds makers who underestimated them. If you didn’t underestimate Goran Dragic and company, you could have made some nice coin. Amazingly, Phoenix was also 29-12 on the road ATS, but sadly didn’t make the playoffs.
Charlotte Bobcats 43-39 SU, 47-33-2 ATS
Are you noticing a trend here? The Bobcats were also a surprising ball club with dramatic improvement thanks to the play of Al Jefferson. This was another team that was underestimated by the odds makers, because they were so awful the previous season. If you bet on Kemba and AJ, you hit paydirt.
Toronto Raptors 48-34 SU, 46-34-2
Toronto wasn’t as much of a surprise to succeed as the top two teams, but they played well on the road, and that enhanced their ATS record. Along with that, they played in the weakest division in the NBA.
Los Angeles Clippers 57-25 SU, 46-35 ATS
As we’re seeing in the playoffs, CP3 and Blake Griffin keep delivering no matter what the circumstance is. This was a team that was 34-7 at home SU, but you were better off betting on LA Clippers on the road, and that’s possibly because they were large home favorites.
San Antonio Spurs 62-20 SU, 45-37 ATS
The Spurs were identical to the Clippers in that their better ATS record was on the road. Covering a large betting spread at home is difficult, especially when the entire betting public is riding you as a team.
Dallas Mavericks 49-33 SU, 44-38 ATS
I want to skip over the Portland Trail Blazers (who were actually ahead of Dallas) because the Mavericks fit into the same grouping as the Suns and the Bobcats: surprise teams.
Many people thought that the Mavs would be on the decline due to getting older, and carrying a ton of veterans on their roster, but with the help of Monta Ellis, Dallas rose to the occasion SU and ATS. Odds makers underestimated, and the sportsbooks payed in return.
Predictable: Orlando Magic 23-59 SU, 34-44-4 ATS
The thing that made the Magic so predictable was their poor play on the road. SU, the Magic were just 4-37 on the road. Odds makers couldn’t make a spread high enough when this bottom feeder was on the road. ATS, Orlando was 13-25-3 ATS on the road. Basically, if you bet against the Magic on the road, you collected.
Let’s keep these trends and records in mind for next season when we make our NBA picks. Good luck in the playoffs, everyone!