The Warriors head home for Game 5 with a 3-1 lead, but without their star forward, Draymond Green tonight, will the Warriors be able to close out Cleveland without one of their best players?
Harrison Barnes O/U 17.5 points and rebounds
We talked about it some on the Odds Couple show this morning, but the one player who absolutely has to step up for the Warriors with Draymond Green out is Harrison Barnes. Not only is he their next best forward, he is coming up on a contract year. Barnes has been making the case that he is a max player, but with Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala becoming free agents after next season, Golden State is more than justifiably skeptical about giving Barnes that kind of money.
However, if Barnes has a big showing tonight in a potentially close out Game 5, the Dubs may not want to break up the chemistry they have been building over the last three seasons. There have been rumors of the Warriors letting Barnes walk in favor of bringing in Kevin Durant if he wants to come, but that actually becomes a conversation if the Warriors win tonight and Barnes has 15-20 points.
Barnes’ Usage Rate in the playoffs has been 14.1 percent, which is lower than both the regular season and in last year’s title run. However, with Green out tonight, and after playing 40 minutes in Game 4, I am confident he sees a few more shots and three pointers. He has been stellar over the last two games even with Green on the floor, and I think he is ready to prove he is worth max money tonight.
My Pick: OVER 17.5 (-125) at Bovada
Andre Iguodala O/U 19.5 points, rebounds and assists
Andre Iguodala knows all about stepping up when his team needs it, and once again I think he is another player who will have to play big in Green’s absence. This may be the game that Iguodala steps into the starting lineup with Green out, and while he may still come off the bench, he has played huge minutes in the two games that weren’t blowouts in this series.
In this series, in the two games where Iguodala has played at least 36 minutes, he is averaging 11 points, 6.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds per game. With Green out, Iguodala will also have to add to his 12.1 Usage Rate from the postseason, which has also been a career low in both the regular and postseason for Iguodala. The fact that he got double-digit shot attempts in Game 4 is encouraging now with Green out. He will easily get more than that number tonight even if he doesn’t slide into the starting lineup.
Iggy’s other contributions to this series though have been fantastic he is averaging nine total points and rebounds per game in the NBA Finals, and as long as he gets to nine or 10 tonight, this should be a nice ticket casher for the over with Iggy.
My Pick: OVER 19.5 (-115) at Bovada