It’s a huge day of NBA Playoff action with four of the first game on all day. Sportsbooks have just released their prop betting picks, and I am back to give you my three best player props as NBA Picks.
Dwight Howard O/U 11.5 Rebounds
Dwight Howard has been up and down all season, and if he isn’t hurting the Rockets by getting into foul trouble, he is hurting them by not putting forth much effort on defense. However, in a huge playoff series that he needs to play well in if he wants to test the free agent market this offseason, Howard needs to show up big against the Dubs. I think he will do just that, and the area he will hurt Golden State the most is his rebounding.
In his last two games against the Warriors, Howard grabbed a total of 28 rebounds. The Warriors have been soft in the middle heading down the stretch of the season, and even though Andrew Bogut should help that, on the season the Warriors ranked 20th in defending centers. They were just an average rebounding team, and they have up the 6th most offensive rebounds. Howard has a Total Rebound Rate of 20.2 percent, and if there is one area of his game that hasn’t regressed over the years, it’s his ability to grab boards, and the NBA Odds are not prohibitive.
NBA Props Pick: Over 11.5 -140
Al Horford O/U 26.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Al Horford has been one of the most underrated players this entire season. It’s pretty unbelievable the Hawks were shopping him at the deadline, but now here in the playoffs, he has one of the most intriguing matchups of any loan player here on Saturday. The Celtics’ interior defense is – for lack of a batter term – soft. They ranked 23rd against opposing centers, and much like the Warriors, they have trouble rebounding and stopping big men from scoring.
With the exception of one game where he played limited minutes in a blowout win, Horford has owned the Celtics this season. In his three games where he played at least 30 minutes, he is averaging almost 29 total points, rebounds and assists. Now in the playoffs where his minutes should only go up, Horford could once again dominate on the inside. I expect him to have at least five assists to go along with about 25 total points and rebounds.
NBA Props Pick: Over 26.5 -130
Kyle Korver O/U 9.5 points
This play is a little riskier considering bet365’s number is so low on this one, but Kyle Korver has not played as well this season. He has shown glimpses of his former self, but his new mechanics, or maybe even age is catching up to him. Tonight against the Celtics and Avery Bradley, he has one of the worst matchups of ay player on the slate tonight, and even at 9.5 points, the under at even money is intriguing.
In his last game against Bradley and the Celtics, Korver had only five points in 26 minutes. He played better in his first three meetings with the Celtics, but if his three-point shot isn’t falling, he is going to fall under this total. Bradley is holding players he defends to only 41.6 percent from the floor, and 33.7 percent from beyond the arc. Korver could be in for a rough night, but there's plenty of value in him as an NBA Pick.
NBA Props Pick: Under 9.5 points +100