Bucks vs. Pistons
Milwaukee and Detroit both had the night off on Sunday, and they come in tonight with the Pistons as -6 favorites in the NBA Odds, with a total of 206 points. Both of these Central Division teams are headed for the lottery, and after the Pistons lost to the Sixers the other night, will they bring it tonight against the other league-worst team?
The spread of -6 seems to be overvaluing the Pistons here, but they could also blow out Milwaukee if they play well. Detroit is one of the biggest mysteries in the NBA this season, and they are far from predictable ATS, even at home against the Bucks.
However the total brings a new look on Detroit value this season in the NBA Odds, as they are the number one over cashing team in the NBA this season at 47-26. Even though they have gone only 3-4 cashing the over in there last six games, I think 206 is far too low for these two defensively challenged teams.
All three meetings between these two teams have gone over this season, and even though we are late in the season and those totals were lower, I think the Bucks can still score on Detroit. For having so much size, the Pistons are not a great defensive team, and after giving up 120+ to a team that lost more than 25 games in a row, even the Bucks should be able to get over 100 points.
Milwaukee is 22-14 cashing the over on the road this season, and it’s not their scoring that has been the reason. They are giving up almost 106 points per game on the road this year, and I expect somewhere around there for the Pistons.
NBA Pick: OVER 206
Knicks vs. Jazz
The Knicks had to play last night as did the Jazz, and now they both head to Salt Lake City for a matchup against one another on no rest. The NBA Odds have the Jazz as +3 home underdogs, with a total of 196 points. Despite the Knicks’ game on Sunday night in Golden State, I think they have a great shot at winning ATS tonight, and moving closer to the 8th seed in the East.
The Knicks dominated the first meeting between these two teams a few weeks ago in New York, 108-81. With the Knicks still well in the playoff hunt with only a few weeks remaining, they need to win against teams like the Jazz, even though they are on the road, and even though they played last night.
Utah is only 6-14 SU and 8-12 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back, while the Knicks have been solid in that spot this season at 8-9 ATS. Also, Utah has not been good against the East this season, going 11-17-1 ATS overall in inter-conference games, while the Knicks are 7-4 ATS this season as road dogs.
The Jazz have been one of the best fades in the month of March, and I think it continues tonight against the Knicks. The NBA Odds undervalue New York here, as the Jazz have lost eight of their last 10 games ATS, and they have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. No one on the Jazz will be able to slow down Carmelo Anthony, and I see the Knicks being the play for our basketball picks.
NBA Pick: Knicks -3