Join us as we study the NBA Odds market in search for the leats risky and most profitable opportunities, and walk away with three winning NBA Props Picks.
Playoffs Record: 2-4
Some bad breaks in terms of blowouts have ruined some of our prop picks, and instead of being 5-1 or even 6-0, I am sitting at 2-4 to start the playoffs. However, if it weren’t for all of my picks not playing in the fourth quarters of their Game 1’s, I would be swimming on cash, so at the very least I am on the right path to improve our prop picks for Monday night.
DeMar DeRozan O/U 24.5 points
The Pacers and Paul George shut down DeMar DeRozan in Game 1 of this series, limiting him to only 14 points on 5-19 shooting. While I expect a bounce back performance from the Raptors, and especially Kyle Lowry, with Toronto starting Norman Powell at small forward, it gives the Pacers the ability to put George on DeRozan. Other than some previous matchups where DeRozan was able to get the line a ton, that is a tough matchup for the Raptors shooting guard.
In their 17 career meetings against one another, George has limited DeRozan to only 37 percent from the floor, and in games where DeRozan has single digit free throw attempts; George has held DeRozan to less than 24 points in all of those games. Considering George held players he defended to only 40.7 percent from the floor this season, and considering DeRozan really doesn’t shoot too many threes, as long as George can play him tough without fouling, I see DeRozan falling under his points total on NBA Odds again tonight.
My Pick: Under 24.5 points -115
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Dirk Nowitzki O/U 18.5 points
While Dirk Nowitzki is far from the player he once was, he is going to need to jump in the hot tub time machine for this game tonight. The Mavs are going to be without their top two guards and David Lee tonight, so as long as they can keep this game close through four quarters, Nowitzki is going to have to play a ton. That being said, his points total is way too low for tonight’s game.
He has owned Serge Ibaka in their past matchups. In the playoffs alone Nowitzki is averaging 29 points per game against him. While some of those matchups were a long time ago, and even though Dirk has not faired well against the Thunder this season, he is going to be taking a ton of shots tonight. It would not surprise me to see Nowitzki take 25 shots if this game is anywhere close to not being a blowout. Nowitzki recently dropped 33 points on the Thunder in their last regular season game, and he only needed 25 minutes on Saturday to drop 18 points. Hopefully the Mavs can man up, and hopefully Nowitzki can find his range to keep the Mavs in it and get us a winning over ticket.
My Pick: Over 18.5 points -125
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
Raymond Felton O/U 4.5 Assists
It looks as if JJ Barea and Deron Williams will miss this game for the Mavs, which means that Raymond Felton and Devin Harris will end up being the primary ball handlers for tonight’s contest against the Thunder. Once again, this one really depends on if it stays relatively close, but if this game is within 20 points at the end of three quarters, I expect the Mavs to fight this one until the end.
That being said, Felton’s assists numbers are way too low for how much he should be handling the ball tonight with those other two point guards likely out. He had two in 30 minutes in Game 1, and that was with Williams and Barea playing. This season when those two players are of the court, Felton has an Assist Rate of nearly 35 percent, which means that he assists on 35 percent of the Mavs field goals when he is on the court and Barea and Williams are not.
The Mavs only scored 70 points in Game 1 on 25 made field goals. Even if the Mavs only get another 25 field goals, that would mean that Felton will have somewhere around eight assists tonight. I’m assuming he will have at least seven or eight tonight, so add the over to your NBA Picks.
My Pick: Over 4.5 +110
Best Line Offered: at Bet365