Monday Quick Pick: Total Heading 'Over' in Hawks-Pelicans

Jordan Sharp

Monday, November 13, 2017 2:03 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 13, 2017 2:03 PM UTC

The Pelicans have been on a hot streak lately, cashing their last five games ATS and winning four of their last five SU. Now they welcome in what should be an easy win against the Atlanta Hawks, and the New Orleans  is -9.

Free NBA Pick: Over 217Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Hawks at Pelicans

Atlanta is not going to be a great team this season, but it has been tricky to judge ATS lately. The Hawks are 3-1 ATS in their last four games, and they also beat the Pelicans in their last meeting from New Orleans last season.

Even though these two teams are a lot different than 2016-17, the Hawks have gone through the most changes, and the biggest difference has been their defense. After being one of the league’s best defensive teams over the last few seasons, the Hawks are allowing nearly 111 points per 100 possessions, and their defense is allowing opponents to post a 52.6 effective field-goal percentage.

At home, that tells me the Pelicans are going to put up some big numbers on offense. Both of these teams play at a pace of more than 100 possessions per game, and I expect that pace to be pushed even faster tonight. According to NBA Stats, when the Pelicans play at home, they get even faster. They are playing at a pace of 104.6 possessions per game in New Orleans. Even though the Pelicans have only cashed the 'over' in two of their five home games so far this season, they are 3-2 cashing the 'over' against the East.

The Hawks come into this one cashing the over in six of their last seven games, and in that span they have given up nearly 115 points per game in that stretch. With the Pelicans giving up 110 per game at home due to their faster pace, look for the 'over' to cash in this one.

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