Monday Quick Pick: Hornets Injuries Keep Total Low vs. Thunder

Jordan Sharp

Monday, December 11, 2017 4:24 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 11, 2017 4:24 PM UTC

After cashing a pair of NBA Picks on Sunday, I’m back at it with a later-starting slate Monday. We begin with the Thunder at home against the Hornets, Neither one of these two teams can cover a spread to save their lives, but the total in this one is a bit more attractive.

Free NBA Pick: Under 206½Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3264658, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,93,1096,999993], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Hornets vs. Thunder

Even though the Thunder are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games and 7-17-1 ATS this season, they have the luxury of facing the Hornets, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, and 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17. There is no telling who will cover this one tonight with sharp NBA Odds of -7 in favor of the Thunder, but the total for me has some unique betting value to these two teams.

At 206½, there is a chance both teams fall below 100 points, and I think the odds could start dropping as the morning turns into afternoon. The Thunder are one of the best defensive teams in the league when playing at home. Overall they are allowing just 99 points per game, and at home they limit their opponents to 96.9 points. So far this season, the Thunder own a defensive rating of 100.2 points allowed per 100 possessions, which ranks second-best behind only the Celtics. At home they get even better, limiting opponents to a defensive rating of 97.2.

Paul George says he is expecting to play, so that is even better news for this Thunder defense if he can go. Which brings me to the next best set of news for the under in this one: the Hornets’ injuries. Right now Nic Batum, Jeremy Lamb, and Frank Kaminsky are all questionable, and if they all miss that’s nearly 35 percent of their offensive production. The Hornets are already not great on offense, but if those three guys have to sit out they go from bad to really bad.

The best part is the Hornets are a top-10 defense, and even though they slip some on the road, they also only scored 99 points against the Lakers two nights ago at home, so on the road against a much better defense, they might not even get to 90 if those aforementioned guys can’t play.

comment here