It’s the week of Christmas, and because of the lighter holiday schedule this week, Monday’s NBA Odds are stacked. There are 11 games on the tap tonight, and although some are yet to have odds with them, I have found two that do, and I think both are good enough to add to your NBA Picks tonight.
Warriors vs. Nuggets
The only sportsbook that has NBA Odds out for this game as of this morning is BetOnline, who has the Nuggets as a -2 ½ favorite, with a total of 206. While we could go back and forth for hours debating whether or not Denver should be favored as much as they are, I think the total that BOL has for us is pretty nice for an over bet tonight, and I am taking a swing.
Denver’s defense has been better, but still not great this season. They are giving up over 102 points per game, they give up over 104 points per game to the west, and over their last five, the Nuggets have given up over 103 per game. The Warriors’ defense is spotty this season as well, and I think we have to look at a total below 210 as nice value for these two teams. These two are 11th and 13th in offensive efficiency this season, and both teams are in the top 7 in the NBA in possessions per game.
Three of the last five, and five of the last eight overall meetings between these two teams have gone over the total, and I see it happening again tonight. While most of those games were in the playoffs last season, these two are still very capable of getting hot at the Pepsi Center.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 206 @ BetOnline
Sacramento is a +1 underdog in the NBA Odds this evening, as the Pelicans come to town, and the total is sitting at 209 at most shops. Even though the total seems really inviting, I think it might be a trap. Both of these teams are horrific defensively, however they both like to play slower than other west teams. Instead I like the value the Kings are presenting as +1 home underdogs, and I think a wager on Sac-town might be the best play.
New Orleans is only 5-8 ATS on the road this season, and they are only 4-11-1 ATS playing the Western Conference on the year. Even though they got back Anthony Davis, he is not going to be able to stop DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins has at least 50 pounds on the young 2nd year player out of Kentucky, and Davis is more fit for the power forward spot in my opinion. With Rudy Gay and Isaiah Thomas as well, the Kings present some tough mismatches for the Pelicans on the road. Even though it is a very evenly matched game, I see the Kings being a little too much for New Orleans.
Jason Smith, the normal starting center/power forward (he and Davis play both positions essentially) missed Saturday’s game with a knee injury, and if he misses again, Davis might have to guard Cousins exclusively. The Pelicans are already without Greg Stiemsma, so the next guy up for them at center would be Alexis Ajinca. Needless to say, Cousins should have a monster night, which will just open things up for the other guys in Sacramento.
My Pick: Kings +1 @ Pinnacle