Milwaukee Bucks are the NBA Pick ATS on Road in Toronto

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, February 2, 2015 4:45 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 2, 2015 4:45 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Monday.


What has been a very good road team this year could hold value north of the border Monday might when those Milwaukee Bucks (25-22, 14-12 away) pay a visit to the Toronto Raptors (33-15, 18-7 home) at Air Canada Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:35 ET in a game available on FOX Sports Wisconsin.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Milwaukee as a decided underdog for this contest with the current line at +6½ with odds of -108.

From League Worst to Playoffs
Last season the Bucks finished with the worst record in the NBA at 15-67, yes, even worse than the Philadelphia 76ers. This year, they have gone for the lowest depth of the league to currently being in a playoff spot as the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference, and that is despite losing their main beneficiary from being so poor last season Jabari Parker for the season to a torn ACL after he played just 25 games.

The Raptors meanwhile are in first place with a 14-game bulge atop the Atlantic Division and they are now the second seeds in the East after being the winning NBA picks in each of the last six games, trailing only the white-hot 40-8 Atlanta Hawks in the conference. The Raptors do have a flare for the dramatic though as their last two victories have come in overtime and they lead the NBA with their six overtime games this season.

Bucks Excellent on the Road
The Bucks have now won three straight games with the most recent one being an impressive 95-88 win over a good Portland Trail Blazers team that leads the Northwest Division of the stronger Western Conference back home in Milwaukee Saturday. But perhaps the biggest reason for the vast Milwaukee improvement over last year has been its remarkable play on the road this season.

You see, the Bucks are actually two games over .500 straight up on the road, where their 14-12 record is actually better than their 11-10 home mark. Furthermore they are a sensational 20-6 ATS in those road contests! Granted they had one of their rare road lapses when they were blown out by 42 points here in Toronto 124-82 way back in November, and the Raptors then went to 2-0 in the head-to-head season series in Milwaukee on January 19th, although that was by a much narrower 92-89 score.

We now expect this contest to more closely resemble that meeting in Milwaukee than the Bucks’ initial trek here north of the border, as besides improving their play away from home they should also be motivated by this chance to get to four games over .500 overall for the first time in several seasons.

Fatigue to Start Setting in for Toronto?
The most recent overtime game for the Raptors came on the road at Washington in a 120-116 win Saturday, and that completed an overtime back-to-back on the road after needing an extra session to beat the Nets 127-122 in Brooklyn on Friday. While Toronto certainly deserves credit for continuing to win, fatigue almost certainly has to set in at some point, and that is not only because this is their third game at three venues in four nights with the first two needing OT.

No it goes back much further than that, as the Raptors have been extremely busy lately with Monday’s game marking their 10th game in 16 nights with the two overtimes just being icing on the cake! And now taking on a team that has surprisingly thrived while travelling does not exactly help the Raptors’ cause either.

Trending Milwaukee’s Way
In fact the Bucks are now 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall regardless of venue, going 4-1 straight up with the lone loss being a “good” 101-95 loss to the defending champion Spurs in San Antonio as 11½-point underdogs. On the flip side the Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. teams with winning road records.

Look for those trends to hold true for at least one more game as Milwaukee at the very least takes this game right down to the wire, with an outright upset not beyond the realm of possibility either when the Bucks visit the Raptors in Canada on Monday.

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NBA Pick: Bucks +6½ (-108)

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