Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Apr. 1:
23-24-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 32-18 Totals
Boston (46-32 SU, 36-41-1 ATS) at Miami (38-39 SU, 42-34-1 ATS)
Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA-TV
Free NBA Pick: Heat ATS
Best Line Offered: BetOnline
When is a loss not a loss? When it’s a win, of course. The Miami Heat fell 110-105 to the Boston Celtics on Monday, but they cashed in as 7-point road dogs on the NBA odds board. The fact that Miami lost SU makes us even more eager to put the Heat in our NBA picks for Wednesday’s rematch in South Beach, although we’re still waiting for the opening lines at press time.
Once again, we’re a bit baffled as to why. There are six players in total – two from Boston, four from Miami – who are listed as day-to-day, but it isn’t any of their star players. This also isn’t a back-to-back scenario for either team. Maybe it’s because the oddsmakers are tired of the Celtics giving Al Horford (plus-4.8 BPM) so many maintenance days. You’ll presumably have some odds to work with once you read this; if you like what you see, jump on the Heat while the jumping is good.
The Celtics don’t always pay us off when we fade them, but it happens more often than not. Take Saturday’s game against the Brooklyn Nets, for example; Brooklyn won that one 110-96 as 4-point home faves, after both Horford and Kyrie Irving (plus-6.6 BPM) were given the day off. The Nets and Heat are in pretty much the same boat, holding down the last two spots in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt with almost identical records SU and ATS.
Horford and Irving were both in the starting lineup for Monday’s win at the Garden. However, two key bench players could end up missing Wednesday’s game. Marcus Morris (minus-1.4 BPM), who played Monday, is questionable with a sore left knee, and Jaylen Brown (minus-2.2 BPM), who did not, is doubtful with a bad back. This might normally be a “good’ thing for Boston, but if they’re out, Semi Ojeleye (minus-4.1 BPM) will presumably get more minutes, and this has not been a good sophomore campaign for Muscles Jesus.
Meanwhile, here are the four Heat players listed as day-to-day:
- Justise Winslow (plus-0.1 BPM, thigh)
- Josh Richardson (plus-0.5 BPM, heel)
- Rodney McGruder (minus-2.0 BPM, knee)
- Derrick Jones (plus-0.4 BPM, knee)
Our latest intel at press time is that Jones has been ruled out after he got hurt Monday, while the remaining three players are considered questionable. None of those three played that first game, so it shouldn’t affect our pick too much if they sit this one out, too. The Heat are 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games, while the Celtics are 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS over the same span; bet this one with confidence – if you like the opening odds – and may the sphere be with you.