Memphis is The Pick: Take Grizzlies -8 Over Heat

Darin Zank

Sunday, December 7, 2014 12:44 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 7, 2014 12:44 PM UTC

Memphis had won 22 home games in a row until Friday night, when it lost to San Antonio. The Grizzlies will try to start a new home streak when they host Miami tonight. Here's our breakdown of this NBA betting match-up, with our attempt at a free winning NBA pick.

Heat-Grizz Betting Odds
Most of the NBA betting odds market opened this game with Memphis favored by 8.5 points, the total offered at right around 192, and those numbers were holding fairly steady in the early betting. Those who think Miami might win this game outright could get a price of +350 on the moneyline at SBR odds.


Heat-Grizz: The Situation
Memphis started 6-0 this season, then lost a game by one point to Milwaukee. The Grizzlies then won four more in a row, before losing at Toronto. Memphis then won five more in a row, but has lost its last two, the first time this season it's done that, after falling at home to San Antonio Friday night 107-101.

The Grizzlies shot 46 percent from the field Friday night, but allowed the Spurs to shoot 48 percent, including 14-for-25 from 3-point range. At 15-4 the Grizzlies are tied for the third-best record in the Western Conference.

Miami started this season 5-2, with wins over Washington, Toronto and Dallas. The Heat then lost three in a row, then won four of their next six. But Miami has lost its last three games in a row, both SU and ATS, after getting bounced at Milwaukee Friday night 109-85, whiffing on the cover as a two-point road favorite.

The Heat shot 44 percent from the field Friday, allowed the Bucks to shoot a blazing 57 percent and got outrebounded 52-29. Miami has been held to 86 points or fewer in three of its last four games. At 9-10 the Heat own the seventh-best record in the Eastern Conference. This is the first meeting this season between these two teams. Last season the teams split two games, each winning and covering on its home courts. Of course, Miami was a little different team last season, with the now-departed Mr. James leading the team to the NBA Finals.


Heat-Grizz, Statistically Speaking
Memphis ranks sixth in the league in FG shooting at 47 percent, 15th in 3-point shooting at 35 percent and 10th in FT shooting at 77 percent. The Grizzlies also rank seventh in FG defense, holding opponents to 44 percent shooting, 15th in rebounding at +0 per game and own a 22/13 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Miami ranks seventh in FG shooting at 46 percent, ninth in 3-point shooting at 37 percent and 22nd in FT shooting at 74 percent. The Heat also rank just 27th in FG defense at 48 percent, dead last in rebounding at -5 per game and own a 21/14 A/TO ratio.


Heat-Grizz Betting Trends
Miami is 5-4 both SU and ATS on the road this season.

Memphis is 8-1 SU but only 4-5 ATS at home.

Miami is 9-10 on the totals this season, as Heat games have averaged 194 points.

Memphis is 10-8 on the totals, as Grizz games have also averaged 194 points.


Injury Update
Miami F Luol Deng (14 PPG) missed Friday's game with a sore hand, and is questionable for Sunday, as is starting guard Norris Cole, who's missed the last two games with an illness. On the other side of the scorer's table Memphis F Marc Gasol has been bothered by a sore knee but played Friday and scored 28 points.


Heat-Grizz Free Pick
Memphis owns edges in several departments, most importantly on defense. And Miami might be a bit shorthanded. So in expecting a bounce-back effort we like as our NBA pick the Grizzlies for the win and the cover in this spot.

Free NBA Pick: Memphis -8 at Bookmaker

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