I’m sick of getting screwed out of prop picks. SO, instead of keeping an even keel tonight, after three days of horrible prop luck, I am getting pissed off before I release my props NBA picks.
Marcus Morris O/U 21.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Speaking of players who need to get pissed off Marcus Morris needs to step up if the Pistons want any chance of winning this series. The only way they are going to get a win tonight is if Morris gives them 15-20 points, and I think he can do it. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, the young Pistons forward has loved playing at home this season.
During the regular season, Morris averaged over 15 points per game when playing at the Palace at Auburn Hills, and he shot nearly 48 percent from the floor and 40 percent from beyond the three-point line. If he can continue those averages, and grab another five or six rebounds and dish out two or three assists, he should easily get 22 or more total points, rebounds and assists in this one. Sure, he will be defender by Lebron James, but that hasn’t stopped him from playing well in Game 1. After getting in foul trouble and shooting poorly in Game 2, I think he has a bounce back game at home on Friday night, so I'll add them to the NBA Picks list.
My Pick: Over 21.5 (-115) at Bovada
Al Horford O/U 26.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Thanks to the Celtics not even trying in Game 2, our Al Horford prop fell under. However, he is back down to 26.5 points, rebounds and assists on the road in Game 3, and I am right back at it going with a play on the over. Even in just 31 minutes in Game 2, he still had 17 points, so there is still little standing in his way over another 17-20 points in this one.
The struggle comes at the rebounding mark. Kyle Korver somehow grabbed seven rebounds in Game 2, while Kent Bazemore grabbed nine. That will not happen again here in Game 3, so there should be more rebounds for the big man to grab. Remember, Horford is playing for a max contract this summer, and big road games in the playoffs will go a long way in making sure either the Hawks or someone else pays him. In six games against the Celtics this season, Horford is still averaging 28 points, rebounds and assists per game.
My Pick: Over 26.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Isaiah Thomas O/U 9 Rebounds and Assists
Isaiah Thomas’ scoring is crucial to the Celtics if they want to win this game and get back in the series. His rebounding is not so much. If you don’t know, Thomas is not a large man. He stands at only 5’7, and while he isn’t a bad rebounder for his sixe, I sincerely doubt he gets more than 2-3 tonight. That means in order to cash this prop, he needs to dish out at least six assists, and with how much they need him to score, I doubt that happens.
There is also the fact that when Avery Bradley is off the floor, Thomas’ Assist Rate drops almost three full points, from 31 percent to 28.1 percent. This is because Bradley is one of their better shooters, and Evan Turner and Marcus Smart can shoot for shit. As long as the Hawks stay at home on Jae Crowder, who is also still a little banged up, I expect Thomas to have to score in this one, making his assist and rebounding numbers a little lighter tonight, so let's take advantage of the NBA Odds.
My Pick: Under 9 (-115) at Bookmaker