Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 1 NBA Picks: Golden State to Start Strong Over Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks face the Golden State Warriors in this year’s Western Conference Finals. Can Luka Doncic prevail over Golden State’s aging stars? We break down Game 1 with our Mavericks-Warriors NBA picks.

The Mavericks head to San Francisco for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals after beating the Phoenix Suns in a tough seven-game series. Dallas won only one road game in the process—albeit the all-important Game 7—but it did so in dominant fashion.

The Warriors come in off a convincing six-game series win over the Memphis Grizzlies. Golden State won each of its three home games against the higher-seeded Grizzlies. However, that series cost the team point guard Gary Payton II, a key defensive contributor. He suffered a broken elbow in Game 2.  

https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1526910484162617344

Here are my NBA picks and predictions for Wednesday’s Game 1 matchup between the Mavericks and Warriors (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mavericks vs. Warriors Game Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, May 18, 9 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds Analysis

The Warriors opened as 5-point favorites over the Mavericks at most books. That’s right where you’ll still find the consensus line although BetMGM has the Warriors as only 4.5-point favorites. Golden State has attracted 76% of the handle on 63% of the tickets.

The total opened at 214.5, and it hasn’t budged. That’s exactly what you’ll find offered across the market. The Over has drawn 77% of the tickets, but the Under boasts 55% of the handle.

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1526936900317085699

Mavericks vs. Warriors Picks

Warriors -4.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ????Under 214.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ????Luka Doncic Over 4.5 turnovers (+105 via DraftKings) ????https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1526929348279865344

Mavericks vs. Warriors Predictions

Warriors -4.5 (-115)

We’ll back the home favorites. There are a number of reasons to do so, but one of the best reasons is simply the fact that the Warriors avoided a Game 7 and the Mavericks didn’t. Over the past 32 years, teams that win in a Game 7 are 32-50 in the Game 1 that follows, likely due to fatigue and lack of rest.

The Warriors have capitalized when they get extra rest this season. They are 3-0-0 ATS with four or more days of rest and are 12-10-2 ATS with a rest advantage. That said, the Mavericks haven’t been bad when they have to play on limited rest—they’re 8-9 ATS with two or three days off and 9-7 ATS with a rest disadvantage.

A few other factors point to value in Golden State. First, the Warriors have been exceptional at Chase Center. They are 27-18-2 ATS at home this year, which ranks third in the Association. That’s all the more impressive because they are just 46-43-4 ATS on the year. 

Second, Golden State has the advantage in two crucial four factor metrics: effective field-goal percentage and offensive rebound rate. The Warriors’ 56.5% effective field goal percentage for the playoffs ranks second, and it sits above the fourth-ranked Mavericks by a 1.6% margin. Likewise, the Warriors’ 28.6% offensive rebound rate ranks sixth, well above the Mavericks’ 22.4% rate. Dallas ranks 15th in the metric. Golden State’s ability to score second-chance points gives the team an edge over Dallas.

Although both teams have played efficient basketball—Dallas’ playoff net rating leads the Warriors by 0.2—Golden State owns four key advantages: home court, rest, shooting, and rebounding. Look for the Warriors to win and cover in Game 1.

Under 214.5 (-110)

Game 1 should stay under this number. Again, rest differential is a meaningful consideration for Game 1s, and it points to value here. The Under is 15-9 when Golden State has a rest advantage. Likewise, the Under is 9-6-1 when Dallas has a rest disadvantage.

The Warriors and Mavericks have been two of the best teams for Under bettors this year. The Under is 57-36-2 in Dallas’ contests, an NBA-best record, and it is 49-42-2 in Golden State’s contests. The Under is also 27-18-2 at Chase Center.

These teams met four times in the regular season, and the Under went 2-2 in those contests. Those games saw two closing numbers lower than this total (213 and 212) along with two higher than it (217.5 and 220.5). With this number right around the lines these teams had for the regular season encounters, the books are creating a bit of value—the Mavericks have slowed down significantly from their already league-slowest regular-season pace.

Strong defensive play from Golden State, fatigue from Dallas, and a lower number of possessions than what these teams saw in the regular season should help Game 1 cash the Under.

Doncic Over 4.5 turnovers (+105)

Mavericks guard Luka Doncic averaged 4.5 turnovers per game in the regular season, but he has trimmed that to a flat 4.0 through two postseason series. While he deserves credit for turning it over less often, I expect a regression back toward his regular-season average in this series.

Doncic struggled with turnovers in all of his games against the Warriors. He turned the ball over a season-high nine times against Golden State in February, and he turned it over six times in two of their other three contests. He stayed Under this number only once in the head-to-head series, and that came in a 38-point Warriors blowout in which he played just 27 minutes. 

Doncic’s struggles with turnovers when playing the Warriors extends to last season, too. He turned the ball over at least five times in all three of their games, and he posted a pair of seven-turnover performances.

The Warriors forced 14.5 turnovers per game in the regular season this year, which ranked eighth. They have since forced 14 per game in the playoffs. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but they’re sufficient to warrant targeting a plus-money prop that has cashed in six of Doncic’s last seven games against Golden State.

Where to Bet on Mavericks-Warriors Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Mavericks-Warriors picks made on 5/18/2022 at 9:09 a.m. ET.