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Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors as we look at our NBA SGP picks for Saturday.
Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

The Dallas Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic and Christian Wood as they travel to take on the Golden State Warriors. Our Mavericks-Warriors NBA picks are based on the best NBA odds.

Though the Warriors have been enduring a disappointing season so far, their performances at home have been quite impressive. They're just 26-26 overall but 19-6 at home. Golden State is now the double-digit favorite over a shorthanded Mavericks team in San Francisco on Saturday because of that Chase Center success. 

The Mavericks' hands will be full without their two leading scorers on Saturday. Both Luka Doncic and Christian Wood are out for this first contest of a five-game road trip. They'll need Spencer Dinwiddie (17.6 points per game) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.5) to step up in a big way to pull off the upset.

Here is our best Mavericks-Warriors NBA pick (odds via BetMGM; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA best bets for Saturday.

Mavericks vs. Warriors game info

Date: Saturday, Feb. 4, 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Mavericks vs. Warriors odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

Mavericks vs. Warriors odds analysis

The Warriors opened as 9.5-point favorites and the line has gone up to as high as 10.5. Interestingly, 54% of the wagers are on the Mavericks to cover, even with their two leading scorers out. However, Oddsmakers are disregarding this trend as they continue to move the line in favor of Golden State.

The total opened at 226.5, and it hasn't budged at any of the major sportsbooks. With Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green all showing up on the injury report, it could be that Oddsmakers are waiting to move this line until their playing status is clear. Currently, 57% of bettors are backing the Over.

Mavericks vs. Warriors pick

Warriors -10.5 vs. Mavericks (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Warriors have been far from impressive this season. But at home, they look like the team everyone expected them to be when the season began. They're 19-6 straight up and have won two straight while beating the Toronto Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies. 

It's a bit worrisome to see Curry, Thompson, and Green all on the injury report, but all three missing the game is unlikely. Expect this line to grow even more if it's confirmed they're playing.

Even if one of the key three Warriors players is out, the team still shouldn’t struggle to cover this large spread against the Mavericks. Dallas is averaging just 112.3 points per game this season, and 51.8 of those points were coming from Doncic and Wood. 

Though the Mavericks are allowing just 111.8 points per matchup, they’re about to face the NBA's second-highest-scoring team. The Mavericks' defense could hold the Warriors below their season scoring average, but Dallas won't score enough to keep this one close.

Mavericks vs. Warriors best odds

BetMGM (-105)

Warriors -10Warriors -10Warriors -10.5Warriors -10Warriors -10

You can feel comfortable taking this number up to 12 because of the Mavericks' injuries. Therefore, BetMGM offers the best value at Warriors -10.5.

If Curry, Thompson, and Green are all out, then all bets are off, and it's probably better to just take the Under in this game. However, the Warriors will cover with ease as long as one of them plays.

Take the best price at any number under 12.

Mavericks-Warriors pick made 2/4/2023 at 10:05 a.m. ET.

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