Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 2 NBA Picks: How Will Dallas Respond After Game 1?

After losing by 25 points in Game 1, can Luka Doncic rally his team to a bounce-back performance in Game 2? Find out with our Mavericks-Warriors Game 2 Picks.

Hot off a decimation of the Phoenix Suns in Game 7 of the Western Conference semi-final, the Dallas Mavericks found a much different opponent waiting in San Francisco for Game 1 of the Western Conference Player. The Golden State Warriors built an early lead in the first quarter and outscored Dallas by 16 in the second half to claim a 25-point win and a 1-0 series lead.

Dallas was stifled by Golden State’s solid defense, but the team also looked a bit flat, potentially worn down from the drawn-out series with the Suns. The Warriors didn’t rely on a huge game from Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, or Jordan Poole, instead of playing team ball and getting big minutes from all of the starters.

Dallas needs to strike back in Game 2 to either tie the series or build positive momentum ahead of Sunday’s shift back to Dallas for Games 3 and 4.

Here are my picks and predictions for Friday’s NBA matchup between the Mavericks and Warriors (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mavericks vs. Warriors Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, May 20, 9 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds Analysis

After Golden State’s huge Game 1 win, the public favors the Warriors to cover, but not by a substantial margin. 60% of the tickets and 51% of the cash are on the Dubs to win by at least seven points, while 81% of tickets and 72% of money are on Golden State ML. That tells you that the public likes Golden State to win a second straight game but they’re not counting on another blowout.

A more competitive game likely means more efficient scoring from Dallas, and 73% of the tickets and 71% of the money are on the Over, even after the point total went 17.5 points under in Game 1.

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1527664695317917696

Mavericks vs. Warriors Picks

Mavericks +6 (-108) ?????Over 213.5 (-110) ?????Luka Doncic to record a triple-double (+430) ?????

Mavericks vs. Warriors Predictions

Mavericks +6 (-108)

I’m siding with the public on this one and taking the Mavs to cover.

Despite the lopsided final score, these teams were nearly even in turnovers and made 3-pointers in Game 1, but Golden State demolished Dallas in efficiency. The Mavs made 11-of-48 3-pointers (22.9%) while Golden State made 10-of-29. The Warriors held a huge advantage in overall field goal percentage (FG%), winning 56.1% to 36%. Dallas covered in three of five matchups with Golden State and went 26-9 after a loss and 28-21 on the road this season.

The Mavericks piled up the points in Game 7 of their semi-final series, and the extreme shooting struggles in Game 1 against the Dubs weren’t all due to the Warriors’ defense. Positive regression is coming, and if Luka Doncic responds with a monster game that he’s capable of, the Mavs should keep this one within six points.

Over 213.5 (-110)

The Mavs and Warriors went over in just two of five matchups this season. The Mavs were 14-20-1 to the Over after a loss and 14-15 on the road overall. Golden State was 18-25-2 as the home favorite and 18-28-2 as the home team.

Trends may point us to the Under. But as mentioned above, Dallas shot pitifully in Game 1. Positive regression (even slightly) should mean plenty more scoring for the Mavs, especially if Doncic erupts.

There’s reason to believe Golden State can score even more points in Game 2. The Dubs drained just 10 3-pointers Wednesday, well below the 14.3 they averaged in the regular season. The team has plenty of capable scorers in Curry, Thompson, Poole, and Andrew Wiggins, so a high-scoring affair certainly isn’t out of the question.

The Mavs covering and these teams going Over the point total hinge on Dallas responding to a gut punch in Game 1. I believe their superstar guard will answer the call, and some of the triples fired in Game 1 by both sides will find their way to the basket tonight.

Doncic triple-double (+430)

After a disastrous 25-point loss in Game 1, there’s no way Luka Doncic comes out flat for a second straight game.

He had his worst game of the playoffs on Tuesday, going for just 20 points, seven boards, and four assists. Doncic had his way with inferior defenses in Phoenix and Utah, as neither team had the bodies to throw at Doncic the way Golden State does. Despite the tremendous challenge, I think Doncic responds to the bad loss and does what superstars do best.

Doncic has averaged 32.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 8.1 dimes in his playoff career, compiling three triple-doubles in that span. This postseason, he’s scoring at a similar pace and pulling down nearly 10 boards a game, but he’s averaging just 6.4 assists. The drop in dimes has accounted for a lack of triple-doubles, but he’s posted seven double-doubles and come within 1-3 rebounds or assists of a triple-double in five of 11 contests in the postseason. Doncic followed up his two 20-point losses to Phoenix with lines of 26/13/9 and 33/11/8 in the semis, so there’s good reason to believe he comes out swinging on Thursday.

Banking on Luka delivering a superstar performance and registering a fourth career playoff triple-double provides great value in Game 2. 

Where to Bet on Mavericks-Warriors Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Mavs-Warriors picks made 5/20/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET