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James Harden and Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers feature in our Mavericks vs. 76ers prediction.
James Harden and Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers. Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images via AFP

Superstars collide as two teams desperate for a win meet for a marquee showdown in Philadelphia. Our Dallas Mavericks vs. Philadelphia 76ers prediction is based on the best NBA odds.

It’s been rough sailing for the Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers as of late. The Mavs are 1-4 straight up over their last five outings, taking back-to-back losses to a Charlotte Hornets team that’s headed for a high lottery pick.

The 76ers have also lost four of five, including three straight on the road.

The Mavs beat Indiana by 23 on Monday, and the Sixers are back home after a West Coast road trip. Philly could get star big Joel Embiid and guard James Harden back, so both teams are trending up ahead of this marquee matchup. 

Here is our best Mavericks vs. 76ers prediction (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mavericks vs. 76ers prediction

76ers -4.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It’s no secret that the Mavericks haven’t been great since acquiring guard Kyrie Irving at the trade deadline. Since Irving’s first game with the team on Feb. 8, Dallas is tied for the fifth-worst record in the Association at 8-13. 

Prior to Irving’s debut, the Mavs had one of the best defensive ratings in the league at 108.8. Since then, the defensive rating has gone into the toilet at 118.9. Philadelphia should have no problem putting up points in front of its home crowd, especially if Embiid and Harden are available.

Dallas ranks 20th in points per game on the road at just 112.8, and Philadelphia ranks fourth in points per game allowed at home, giving up just 109.3 at Wells Fargo Center. Irving and Doncic will have a tough time scoring, and without a deep roster around them, the Mavs might struggle to keep pace with Philly.

We’re taking the Sixers to bounce back at home after three straight road losses and cover this modest spread. Philly ranks seventh in net rating per game at home with 5.6, so even an average performance would suffice here.

Mavericks vs. 76ers best odds

BetMGM (-105)

76ers -476ers -476ers -4.576ers -476ers -4

All of our featured books offer the 76ers at -4 for -110 odds or shorter except for BetMGM. BetMGM allows us to sell half a point in order to get longer odds, which is what we’ll do. We’d be comfortable betting this one all the way up to 76ers -6.5, so taking this one at -4.5 after it opened at -5.5 is a no-brainer that offers up plenty of value.

Mavericks vs. 76ers odds

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

Mavericks vs. 76ers odds analysis

Philadelphia opened as 5.5-point favorites, but the line has moved by as much as a point and a half in favor of the visiting team. Bettors have laid 58% of wagers on Philly to cover, though that percentage is likely to trend up if Embiid and Harden are announced as available. On the season, the Sixers are 18-13-1 against the spread as home favorites, while Dallas is 11-9 as the road dog.

The point total opened at 230.5, and it has risen as high as 232 at some books. Both teams have hit the Over in just one of their last five contests, though the teams hit the Over when they met earlier in the season, with a final total of 159 points. Dallas has hit the Over in 17 of 38 contests on the road this season, while Philly has done it in 19 of 37 contests at home.

Mavericks vs. 76ers game info

  • Date: Wednesday, March 29, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA

Mavericks-76ers pick made 3/29/2023 at 11:55 a.m. ET.

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