Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 NBA Picks: Can Phoenix Return to Dominating?

Kenny Ducey

Last Updated: May 10, 2022 9:03 AM EDT • 2 min 56 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - APRIL 19: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns during the first half of Game Two of the Western Conference First Round NBA Playoffs at Footprint Center on April 19, 2022 in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Christian Petersen / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Suns will look to retake the series lead at home in Phoenix. Let's dive into the matchup with our Mavericks-Suns picks.

The Suns took a commanding 2-0 lead in this series, but it's now tied after a couple of hot shooting nights from the Mavericks in Dallas. Chris Paul has been contributing little over the last two games, and the Suns' offense has suffered.

Dallas shot 45.5% from three while hitting 20 shots in a Game 4 win at home. It managed to shoot 41% or better in the first two games of the series and lose. It’ll be a challenge to get a win on the road exclusively through shooting.

Here are my Mavericks-Suns picks and predictions for Tuesday's NBA matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Mavericks vs. Suns Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, May 10, 10 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Footprint Center, Phoenix, Ariz.

Mavericks vs. Suns Odds Analysis

Despite Dallas being a public team for the bulk of this series and the playoffs, PointsBet is reporting just 30% of tickets are going the Mavericks’ way. In a less shocking turn, only 6% of the handle is on the Mavericks, meaning the wise guys are loading up on the home side. The Suns have moved from 5.5-point favorites to 6-point favorites as a result.

But that’s nothing compared to the line movement on the total, which has gone from 213.5 all the way to 215 at some books. Head to PointsBet if you want to back Phoenix, where the line remains six points. The best value on Dallas is at BetMGM, where the Mavs are now a 6.5-point underdog.

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Mavericks vs. Suns Picks

Suns -6 (-110 at PointsBet) ?????Under 215 (-110 at DraftKings) ???Cam Johnson Over 2.5 rebounds (-140 at DraftKings) ?????

Mavericks vs. Suns Predictions

Suns -6 (-110)

The Suns have been a nightmare over the last two games, but that’s mainly due to Paul not being himself. With a combined 17 points during that stretch, he’s been essentially absent from the court and has even become a minus for Phoenix. He committed seven turnovers in Game 3 and fouled out of Game 4 in just 23 minutes.

We can reasonably expect Paul to benefit from more whistles at home now, and for the Suns to go back to dominating. They boasted offensive ratings of at least 130 points per 100 possessions during their two home games in this series. They've also shot 7.4% or better from three at home.

The rebounding battle has been lopsided with Phoenix winning, and that will continue. Dallas has gone small with Maxi Kleber all series to increase its offensive output. That backfired during the first two games when the team wasn't unable to score enough to make a meaningful difference. Phoenix should win in all three phases and take Game 5 easily.

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1524041318405574657

Under 215 (-110)

But wait, didn’t you just get done talking about how the Suns’ offense is ready to break out? Yes, but that doesn’t mean this one is going Over.

The Suns' pace has been painstakingly slow during the playoffs, dipping as low as 89.5 in Game 3 and checking in at a 94 rating in Game 4.

If that persists, the Under will hit for a third straight game. These offenses have simply been too inconsistent to trust both units to enjoy perfect nights and hit the Over with a pace rating that low.

Furthermore, Dallas shot 2.8% better from three at home this year versus on the road, and the club can’t expect to shoot close to 50% again away from Texas.

Johnson Over 2.5 rebounds (-140)

I’ve been rolling with Paul Over 4.5 rebounds all series long, but the market has finally caught up. It’s time to pivot to Cam Johnson.

Dallas has been obsessed with putting Kleber out in a small-ball five to increase its offensive output. That's left the Mavericks exposed on the boards, and they’ve lost the rebounding battle in every game.

Johnson hasn’t been given consistent minutes in this series, but the 26-year-old has come up with five rebounds during the two contests when he’s played over 17 minutes. The Suns will attempt to lean on Johnson a little bit more after some abysmal shooting nights, and he’ll be out there to grab three boards.

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Mavericks-Suns picks made 5/10/2022 at 12:41 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Kenny Ducey

Kenny is a contributor for DraftKings and a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. He's covered Tennis, Football, Basketball, and Baseball dating back to his time at Sports Illustrated. He's based out of New York, where sports have taken a turn for the worst, yet somehow his support for the Jets and Knicks has not wavered in the slightest.