Mavericks, Rockets to Sneak ‘under’ High Total the NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, April 28, 2015 2:06 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 28, 2015 2:06 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.


The highest posted total of the series may very well result in an ‘under’ Tuesday night with the home team trying to advance to the second round as the seventh seeded Dallas Mavericks (51-35, 23-20 away) this time visit the second seeded Houston Rockets (59-27, 32-11 home) for Game 5 of their NBA Playoff first round series from the Toyota Center in Houston, TX at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT, with the Rockets leading the series 3-1.

The posted total at Bet365 is 222 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

Certainly a High Scoring Series So Far
Let us preface this selection by acknowledging that this has been a very high scoring series so far with three of the first four games shattering the totals by decisively wide margins. Most recently, the Mavericks staved off elimination with a 121-109 win on Sunday, and that was on the heels of an even bigger score-fest when the Rockets opened up a commanding 3-0 series bulge with a 130-128 win in Game 3 in Dallas.

The Rockets have also relied on offense while being the winning NBA picks in three of the first four games, but while their defense has not been sensational, they remain the only team in this series to hold the other to less than 108 points, in fact holding the Mavericks under 100 in a 111-99 win here in this building in Game 2 for the only ‘under’ of this series…until now!

Rockets Look to Wrap Things Up
The Rockets did put up 109 points in that losing cause in Game 4, and we think that returning home here where Houston went 30-11 straight up during the regular season and then won the first two games of this series by 10 and 12 points respectively should be enough to put this series to bed. The Rockets are also an excellent 28-15 ATS at home this year in the regular season and playoffs combined.

Houston has averaged 117.0 points in this series after finishing sixth in the NBA in scoring during the regular season with 103.9 points per game, so we do expect Houston to continue to score its fair share of points here vs. a terrible Dallas defense that has had no answers in this series after ranking just 25th in the league during the season in points against at 102.3 per game. So why exactly are we on the ‘under’ here? Well…

Mavericks Not Known for “Heart”
The Mavericks gave it their all while successfully avoiding the sweep in Game 4, but remember that this team has not responded that well to adversity all year as the attitude of the cancerous Rajon Rondo apparently spread to the whole team. Well that and the fact that the Mavericks know that their poor defense makes overcoming large deficits highly unlikely.

In fact Dallas was lucky not to be facing too many huge deficits this season as its third ranked offense that averaged 105.2 points during the year usually kept it within striking range, and the offense was the sole reason the Mavericks won 50 games.

However, the Mavs may certainly fall behind by a fairly large margin in this game with the Rockets motivated to end this series at home not wanting to give Dallas any hope, and that large deficit could happen rather quickly too. And our fear is that the Mavericks will probably fade away once that happens, resigned to the fact that this series is over.

Thus, Dallas may not end up pulling its weight offensively, much to the chagrin of those that play the ‘over’ at this humongous number.

Season Averages Much Lower than Posted Total
Now, we get that both of these teams can score and neither is known for defense, but keep in mind that combining the regular season and playoffs, the Rockets are averaging 104.5 and allowing 101.1 points per game over all of their games for a combined total average of 205.6 points, while the Mavericks average 105.6 and allow 103.0 for a total of 208.6 combined points. Both of those total averages are significantly lower than this posted total.

With all of this in mind and with this being the highest posted total of this series, look for Dallas and Houston to sneak ‘under’ the bloated total in Game 5 from the Toyota Center on Tuesday.

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NBA Pick: Mavericks, Rockets ‘under’ 222 (-110)

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