Mavericks vs. Raptors NBA Picks: Mavs Must Rebound

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: October 23, 2021 9:13 AM EDT • 3 min 8 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 21: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks drives against Clint Capela #15 of the Atlanta Hawks during the first half at State Farm Arena on October 21, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Kevin C. Cox / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Dallas Mavericks hope to avoid an 0-2 start when visiting the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. Check out how they stack up with our Mavericks vs. Raptors picks.

The Mavericks are 3.5-point favorites at many top sportsbooks with a total of 216.5 points. These teams split their two meetings last season with Dallas winning the last matchup 114-110 in mid-May, behind PG Luka Doncic’s triple-double performance.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s NBA matchup between the Mavericks and Raptors (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

Mavericks vs. Raptors Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, October 23, 7:30 p.m. ETTV: TSN4, BSSWLocation: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Mavericks vs. Raptors Odds Analysis

The Mavericks opened as 4-point favorites at some books. They dropped to 3.5 even before the Raptors’ 32-point win over the Boston Celtics on Friday. Clearly, a game or two does not change that the Mavericks entered the season with higher expectations than a Toronto team that finished 27-45 last year and is playing without PF Pascal Siakam (shoulder). FiveThirtyEight gives the Mavericks a 56 percent win probability in this matchup, but then again, the Raptors had only a 24 percent win probability in Boston.

The total opened at 220 points and has fallen to 216.5. The two teams have played three games this year that were all decided by 15 or more points and none of them had more than 200 total points scored. The Over hit in only 46.8 percent of Dallas games a season ago, which ranked 23rd in the league.

Mavericks vs. Raptors Picks

Mavericks -3.5 (-114)Over 216.5 (-110)Dorian Finney-Smith Over 1.5 Made Threes (-160)

Mavericks vs. Raptors Predictions

Mavericks -3.5 (-114)

Good teams avoid losing skids and bounce back after ugly outings. This is only head coach Jason Kidd’s second game with the team, but he has seen everything in this league. The Mavericks have a superstar player in Doncic, who did not shoot well in the road season opener against the Atlanta Hawks. Look for him to lead the way to a big night, though it may be more about getting his assists up and making his teammates better than him scoring a ton. Doncic had games of 15 and 20 points against the Raptors last season.

But last year, the Mavericks had six losses by more than 20 points. In the next game, they were 5-1 with some of their best games of the season: a 124-73 domination of the Los Angeles Clippers, a 134-132 win over the Golden State Warriors, and a 105-100 win in Game 5 of the playoffs against the Clippers.

Dallas shot 33.3 percent from the field in Atlanta on Thursday night. Last year, the Mavericks had five games where they shot under 40 percent from the field and they were 5-0 in the next game played.

Good teams bounce back, and that’s what I expect Dallas to do as the Raptors are not as good as the Hawks. While I do see Toronto making it closer than a blowout, the Mavericks should be able to cover.

Over 216.5 (-110)

The Over may be a bold pick when the Raptors (36.5 percent) and Mavericks (33.3 percent) are the bottom two teams in field-goal percentage right now, but it’s painfully early in the season. I’m banking on some progression that these teams start making more shots, especially from their best players.

The Raptors just held the Celtics to 83 points after scoring only 83 themselves against the Washington Wizards. G Fred VanVleet has been cold so far, shooting only 26.7 percent from the field and averaging 11.5 points per game. He was the team’s second-leading scorer last year, and with Siakam out and PG Kyle Lowry off to the Miami Heat, he’ll need to start hitting his shots like we are used to seeing. SF Scottie Barnes, the fourth pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, stepped up with 25 points to lead the team in Boston.

Despite Toronto shooting 28.6 percent from three, the Raptors still scored 115 points on Boston, something that rarely happens in this league. The Raps willl shoot better from three, and the Mavericks won’t go a pathetic 18-for-50 (36 percent) from two-point territory like they did in Atlanta.

Dorian Finney-Smith Over 1.5 Made Threes (-160)

Finney-Smith is another player that needs to step up for the Mavericks like he did at times last season. He was 2-for-12 from the field and 1-for-6 from three with five points in Atlanta, for one of his worst games since 2020.

Last season, Finney-Smith played 60 games in the regular season, and he made multiple 3-point shots in 38 of them. He started and ended the playoff series against the Clippers with 18-point games, and he made multiple threes in five of the seven games.

I like him to hit a couple in this game to go along with the narrative of Dallas playing better and winning a higher-scoring game than what these teams have showed us so far this week.

Picks made on 10/23/2021 at 10:40 a.m. ET.

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