Mavericks vs. Pistons Picks, Predictions: Consider Backing Underdogs at Home
A minuscule NBA slate on Thursday features only one game with a big spread, though we still have a few spots that are worth your bankroll. Check out our Mavericks-Pistons NBA picks based on the top odds.
The Mavericks have been about as mediocre as you can get this season, sitting at 10-10 and eighth in the Western Conference. They are coming off a close win against the defending-champion Golden State Warriors and will play an inter-conference road game against the Detroit Pistons, who are dead last in the Eastern Conference at 5-18.
Here are my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday’s game between the Mavericks and Pistons (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Mavericks vs. Pistons Game Info
Date: Thursday, Dec. 1, 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBA TV
Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Mavericks vs. Pistons Odds
Mavericks vs. Pistons Odds Analysis
The Mavericks are coming off a big win on prime time, and on Thursday, they are in line to be fully healthy and will list only newly acquired veteran point guard Kemba Walker as questionable. On the other hand, the rebuilding Pistons' best player, Cade Cunningham, is out for the 12th straight game, while rookie starter Jaden Ivey is questionable with a knee injury.
On paper, this seems like a big mismatch between playoff-hopeful Dallas, led by one of the best players in the world, and a tanking Detroit squad. However, we see only a 7.5-point spread to work with, just a day after the league was tattooed with blowouts on a large slate.
The Mavericks are 5-14-1 against the spread this season; their 26.3% cover rate is the worst in the NBA.
As for the total, the Mavericks rank top 10 in the NBA in defensive rating, and the Pistons rank second-last, balancing out the effects of a wild-card game, keeping the line steady at around 221.5.
Both teams rank top five in the NBA in total Over record, with Dallas games having an Over record of 12-8-0 and Detroit games having an Over record of 13-9-1.
Mavericks vs. Pistons Picks
- Spread: Pistons +8 (-110 via FanDuel)
- Over/Under: Under 221.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
- Prop bet: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 4.5 assists (-110 via DraftKings)
Mavericks vs. Pistons ATS Pick
Pistons +8 (-110) ★★★
With just a one-game slate, it’s tough to find lines to hammer, so we’re going to wager only half a unit on this three-star pick.
The Mavericks, as mentioned above, are better, healthier, and high on confidence after their one-game home stand against the Warriors was successful. They’ve already won a couple of games this season by double digits - those wins were by 41 against the Grizzlies and 28 against the Nuggets.
Meanwhile, the Pistons have lost three straight and have not won a home game since November 7. That’s probably why 86% of the public bets are on the Mavericks against the spread, moving the line barely by about a point. We will fade the public here for multiple reasons.
Not only are the Mavericks the worst cover-rate team in the NBA, but they are specifically bad after a win, with an 0-9-0 ATS record the game after a victory. They also have issues moonwalking to a win when the books think they should, since they are 1-1-9 ATS when favored by at least 6 points.
The Pistons are 11-10-2 ATS on the season, 7-8-2 ATS after a loss, 5-6-2 ATS on exactly one day of rest, and 5-4-1 ATS at home. They will have all of their big men available on Thursday, which is important against a Dallas team that allows the ninth-most points per game with the seventh-highest field-goal percentage in the paint.
On the other end, the Pistons’ weaknesses on defense are specifically in their bigs' ability to switch, making them one of the weakest defensive teams near the basket. This season, they have allowed the second-most field goals per game in the restricted area.
However, the Mavericks refuse to beat teams that way, as they have attempted the seventh-fewest field goals per game in the restricted area and instead live and die by the jump shot.
For a Mavericks team with wing players who have not been consistent shooting this season, you shouldn’t bet on them to rain threes on the road with this sharp line.
Mavericks vs. Pistons O/U Pick
Under 221.5 (-110) ★★
This is a sharp line between two teams that hit the Over at a high rate, so we will lean on the trends here. The Mavericks are 6-3-0 to the Under when they are coming off a win. The Pistons are 8-4-0 to the Under when the total line is set at less than 225.
As mentioned above, betting on the Mavericks' shooters is not something we want to make a habit of doing, and without Cunningham, it isn’t strategic to bet on the Pistons' offense, either.
It is noteworthy that this line has gotten pushed down by about a point over the course of Thursday morning despite most of the action being slightly in favor of the Over.
Mavericks vs. Pistons Prop Pick
Dinwiddie Over 4.5 assists (-110) ★★★★
Though this may just seem like a hedge on the Under, it is also an extreme buy-low spot for Spencer Dinwiddie, whose 9.6 potential assists per game are by far the second-highest on the team. In his last two games, Dinwiddie has recorded two assists in each contest, but that is the first time he has gone back-to-back games Under this line since the first two games of the season in October. Before this two-game set, he had cleared this assist line in 13 of his previous 16 games.
Dinwiddie spends the early and late minutes of games playing shooting guard alongside Luka Doncic and often serves as a secondary point guard for the middle-minute Dallas lineups.
He draws a Pistons team that has allowed the 10th-most assists per game to point guards and the fourth-most assists per game to shooting guards.
Despite recording only four combined assists in the last two games, he had seven potential assists two games ago and four potential assists last game in just 22 minutes before an ejection. Buy low now.
Where to Bet on Mavericks-Pistons Picks
Mavericks-Pistons picks made 12/01/2022 at 10:07 a.m. ET.
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