Mavericks, Nuggets to Capitalize on Home Edge in Monday Matchups

Troy Haliburton

Monday, January 29, 2018 4:49 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 29, 2018 4:49 PM UTC

Dallas hasn't exactly been rolling entering tonight's game against the visiting Heat, while Denver hosts the slumping Celtics in another interconference game. The home teams could be good choices for your NBA picks.

Monday NBA: Heat vs. MavericksFree NBA Pick: Dallas +2Best Line offered: Pinnacle

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Dallas has lost three in a row and six of their last seven games, so taking them to cover the spread on the NBA odds board is going out on the limb. However, there are some factors that would lead to the conclusion of the Mavericks breaking the streak in this spot against the Miami Heat.

The Mavericks win 53 percent of the time ATS, and the Heat are below .500 ATS with a record of 22-24-2. The Heat beat the Mavericks 113-101 on Dec. 22 in Miami, but that was a different Heat team.

Miami has discovered a new style of play with a new cast of characters that has propelled them to the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. Dion Waiters is out for the season, with Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington replacing the majority of his minutes at shooting guard. The Heat have risen by shooting and making more three-pointers. The Mavs are one of the better three-point defending teams in the league, giving up only 36 percent from behind the arc.

Dallas matches up very well with Miami because they have three dynamic athletes on the wing in Dennis Smith Jr., Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes. Those three should be able to keep Goran Dragic in check, so with my NBA picks I like the Mavericks to give the Heat a solid test.

Monday NBA: Celtics vs. NuggetsFree NBA Pick: Nuggets -3Best Line Offered: Bovada

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The Celtics are going through a rough stretch, having lost five of their last six games including Saturday night’s thriller against defending champion Golden State. Part of the Celtics' struggles is because of their inability to score on the offensive end to match up with their top-ranked defense.

Kyrie Irving is still one of the best isolation players in the league, but for him to be most effective he needs to draw the attention of defenders and pass to his teammates for open shots. The main culprits who are not hitting shots are Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. At one point this season Tatum was shooting 59 percent from the field and 59 percent from three; he is down to 48 and 43 percent, respectively. Tatum and Brown are young and will have to go through growing pains while getting tons of playing time.

Denver is in a similar position with its young players having to step up and carry the team. Jamal Murray has emerged as the starting point guard and is leading the Nuggets to victory on a nightly basis.

Denver, a small favorite on the NBA odds board, should protect its home court in this spot. The Nuggets have covered the spread 54.2 percent of the time this season with a home ATS record of 13-11, and with my NBA picks I think they'll do it again tonight.

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