Mavericks and Kings to sneak ‘under’ is the NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, February 5, 2015 6:06 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

 



It may not be quite as high a scoring game as the bloated posted total suggests Thursday night when the Dallas Mavericks (33-18, 18-10 away) pay a visit to the Sacramento Kings (17-30, 10-16 home) at Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, CA at 10:05 ET in a game available on FOX Sports Southwest.

The posted total at Bet365 is 209 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.


Mavericks Blew Big Lead at Golden State
The Mavericks are playing the second game of a back-to-back and they will probably come in disappointed as they once led the Golden State Warriors 40-18 last night, but 51 points by Stephen Curry and 70 second-half points by the Warriors resulted in a 128-114 Dallas loss while allowing 19 Golden State three-pointers in the game, which tied an NBA high this season.

The Kings meanwhile have been the losing NBA picks in nine of their last 10 games, and any momentum gained by the lone win in this span on the road vs. the Indiana Pacers on Saturday was quickly squashed when Sacramento returned home and lost 121-96 to those Warriors on Tuesday. At least Sacramento enters this contest with a day off after that debacle.


Dallas Perimeter Defense Had been Making Strides
Now the Warriors can shoot lights out vs. anyone, so at least Dallas can take some solace in that. The fact of the matter is that while the Mavericks are still 27th in the NBA in three-point defense, they had actually been making tremendous strides in that regard while holding their previous 12 opponents to just 31.5 percent shooting beyond the arc.

We are willing to forgive Wednesday’s defensive outing, especially since Sacramento is 23rd in the NBA in three-point shooting at just 33.2 percent, a figure that drops to 29.1 percent in the last 10 games.

In fact, the Dallas defense had been showing improvement all over the court before last night while holding its previous four opponents below 100 points and allowing an average of only 93.7 points per game over its previous 10 games. It may have been a long time coming for a team that is still just 23rd in points against, but perhaps the Mavericks are finally starting to show the defensive improvement that was expected after trading for Tyson Chandler this past off-season.

The offense is still missing Rajon Rondo though as he recovers from his fractured orbital bone, and point guard play is currently an issue as J.J. Barea, Devin Harris and Raymond Felton combined to shoot 5-for-18 from the field last night, although they did combine for a respectable 12 assists.


Not the Same Since Firing Malone
It is very easy to forget right now that the Kings were actually off to a very good start this season that had players and fans alike thinking playoffs. That was before the surprising firing of former coach Mike Malone and the Kings are just 6-17 straight up since then under Coach Tyrone Corbin.

The defense has been almost non-existent since the firing, but now it looks like the offense has gone in the tank too with the Kings failing to reach 100 points in any of their last three games with all three of those contests staying ‘under’. In fact, Sacramento is now averaging 97.0 points over the last nine games, a big drop from the 101.3 points the Kings average for the season.

Granted the Kings are 27th in the NBA in points against at 104.6 per game, but that combined scoring average in all of their games of 205.9 points is still a shade more than three points less than this fat total, and if the offense continues to slide while the Dallas defense continues to improve with the Golden State game notwithstanding, you could probably shave a few points from that combined average here.


An ‘under’ Head-to-Head Series
Finally, despite both teams having good offenses on paper this it is the ‘under’ that has gone 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings with those games averaging a combined 202.6 points.

Much of that had to do with playing to inflated totals as opposed to great defense, but this looks like another inflated total tonight so go ‘under’ the large number when Dallas visits Sacramento on Thursday.

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NBA Pick: Mavericks, Kings ‘under’ 209 (-110)