The Warriors have been faltering down the stretch run of the season ATS, and tonight things don’t get any easier as they might be faced with being down both members of their frontcourt. David Lee traveled with the team but is still looking doubtful for this game, while Andrew Bogut did not travel with the team and will not play.
This has led to the Warriors becoming +4 underdogs in the NBA Odds in Dallas, and while they certainly could cover this spread, I think the Mavs are actually the play here. I also have my play on the over, which you can check out in my NBA Picks of the Day, however for this, I like the value that the spread brings.
With Lee and Bogut both out, the Mavs are going to be able to do whatever they want in the paint. Although they don’t have any true low post offensive threats, they do like to attack the rim, and there will be no one other than Jermaine O’Neal to stop them. Although O’Neal is reviving his career some in Golden State, he alone cannot slow down the entire Mavs team for the entire game.
The Sharp Pick
Although I expect Stephen Curry to pick up any left over scoring that the Warriors need from the absence of Lee and Bogut, I don’t think it will be enough to stay with the Mavs and cover this +4 spread. The Mavs might be slightly undervalued in this spread due to the Warriors not having two starters available, and with how Golden State has been playing ATS I love fading the Warriors here.
The Warriors have gone 3-7 ATS in their last ten games overall, and those were with Lee and Bogut healthy for the most part. They have actually been much better SU. If the Warriors were a +6 ½ or higher underdog here, I think things would be drastically different, however considering their health, they are not within four points of Dallas on the road. The Mavs have won six of the last seven meetings SU with the Warriors in Dallas, as well as covered three of the last five times they have met up overall.
Dallas is averaging over 107 points per game at home this season, and with the Warriors’ offense downgraded tonight, Dallas doesn’t even have to score that much. The Warriors are 5-2 SU without Bogut this season, but Lee being out as well means the Mavs can almost safely double team Curry any time they want. Down the stretch of the game if Curry is having a good night, expect the Mavs to force the ball from his hands.
If that means Andre Iguodala is handling the ball, the Mavs can defend him well with Shawn Marion, and all of these things are going to lead to the Mavs covering for our basketball picks.
NBA Pick: Mavs -4