Marquee NBA Picks: Spurs To Find Success On The Road vs. Mavericks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, February 5, 2016 4:58 PM GMT

Friday, Feb. 5, 2016 4:58 PM GMT

The San Antonio Spurs visit the Dallas Mavericks as one of our marquee NBA Picks for tonight. Let's review the betting odds and provide you with our sharp selection.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883219, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
NBA Pick: Spurs -6.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks 9:30PM ET
The San Antonio Spurs visit the Dallas Mavericks for their 3rd meeting of the season. The previous 2 meetings this year have been all San Antonio, as they have won by 5 and 29 points (both in San Antonio) holding the Mavericks to just 83 points each game, while allowing the Mavs just 38% shooting. Yet, the Spurs will not be overconfident, as the Mavericks have had their number each of the last 3 times San Antonio has visited the American Airlines Arena.  

 

Betting Analysis
On the injury front, the Spurs will be without both Duncan and Ginobili, while Dallas is expected to be without PG Harris. Those injuries have all been factored into the line, leaving us with a selection on the San Antonio Spurs as we look to increase our record on SBR videos from its current mark of 27-9 ATS, following our 3-game sweep last night.  

At 28-24 SU, the Mavs are struggling to hold on to 6th place in the Western Playoff queue. Admittedly, they have played their best ball at home with a 15-9 SU, 15-8 ATS record. That includes 3-0 ATS as a home dog of 4 or more points. In the rugged Western Conference, that is simply not going to get it done, as the 5 teams ahead of them in the standings are clearly superior. Along with being shut down by San Antonio in the 2 previous meetings, the Mavs enter with little offensive momentum. On Monday, they lost (112-97) at Atlanta then they were defeated on this court (93-90) by Miami on Wednesday night. That bodes poorly when playing the No. 1 defense in the NBA, a San Antonio team, who is allowing just 91 PPG. 

A couple of years ago, the loss of both Ginobili and Duncan from the Spurs’ starting lineup might have signified an issue. But the roster, as constructed by HC Popovich, runs deep. Recent additions on the Spurs’ frontline, include Aldrich and West, which more than offset the loss of Duncan. On the perimeter, Kawhi Leonard has become the Spurs’ “go to player” and will easily take up the slack of the ailing Ginobili. Though Golden St. has the best record in the league by 4 games, the Spurs, at 41-8 SU, are the biggest margin team in the league, outscoring the opposition by an average of over 13 PPG. San Antonio has been solid in this role this season, standing 10-3 ATS  as a road favorite of 6 or more points, lifting their record to 28-11 ATS when favored home, or road, by 6 or more points. Motivated to stay competitive with Golden St. and excelling this year in this pointspread range, it will be the Spurs’ defense which has owned Dallas in previous meetings that will once again put the clamps on the Mavs.

I invite you to put the NBA odds in your favor and join me in my NBA pick with the Spurs tonight by double digits. 

comment here