Make Your Betting Ticket All About the Totals With Monday's NBA Picks of the Day

Jordan Sharp

Monday, February 2, 2015 5:56 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 2, 2015 5:56 PM UTC

We finally had a day of both picks losing yesterday, but on a short slate things like that can happen. However, Monday’s slate of NBA Odds is much larger, and I found 2 plays with great value tonight. 

Wolves vs. Mavs
One of the later games this evening is the Wolves heading into Dallas to play the Mavs. The NBA odds have the Mavs as huge -12 favorites in this one, but with such a large spread, the better bet for this one is the total of 206. We attempted to cash the over with these two teams a couple of weeks ago and failed because the Wolves’ offense failed too. However with the return of both Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic for the Wolves, their offense should score more than 75 points this time around.

On the same token, the Mavs have averaged 111 points against the Wolves in their last six meetings against one another, and while they only scored 98 in their last meeting, that game was a blowout before halftime.

The Wolves have cashed the over at 22-18 on the year as an underdog, and against non-divisional opponents this season they have cashed the over at 23-14. They have also cashed the over in three of their last five games, and while the Mavs have cashed the under at 7-1-1 in their last nine games, against a team like the Wolves with zero defense, this game should go over.

My NBA Pick: OVER 206

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Grizzlies vs. Suns
The final game of the evening is the Grizzlies heading into Phoenix to play the Suns. The NBA Odds have the Grizzlies as -2 ½ favorites, but a better wager for this one has to be the total of 204. We have been using a system from Sports Insights over the last few weeks that has been very successful. When two winning teams face off against one another with a total between 196 ½ and 204, the under has been a great wager. Since 2006, the under is 312-248 in situations such as this, and with the Grizzlies’ defense, I could see them holding down the Suns tonight, even on the road.

The Grizzlies have been an under cashing machine over the last few weeks. The under is 6-0-1 for Memphis in their last seven games, and even though the Suns have a fast-paced offense, I doubt the Grizzlies allow them to get out and run in this one. Despite Phoenix’s fast paced offense, they have cashed the under in their last four games in a row.

Tonight Memphis is going to work their half court offense as much as possible in order to keep the Suns from getting easy rebounds and run outs. Mike Conley, Tony Allen and Jeff Green are going to completely shut down the Suns’ back court options tonight, and with their huge size advantage down low, the Suns aren’t going to get many easy baskets. Look for a game that ends with a final score of around 102-98, and for the under to once again help us have a winning night of NBA picks.

My NBA Pick: UNDER 204 

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