Here's The NBA Finals rematch between the Cavaliers and Warriors! There are a lot of good player prop picks, but I have narrowed it down to the three best bets to tip off the Finals!
Draymond Green O/U 29.5 points, rebounds and assists
When it comes to x-factors in this series, Draymond Green is right at the top of the list along with Stephen Curry for the Warriors. Curry is obvious, but if Green is playing at his peak performance level in this series, the Warriors are going to be very hard to beat. Green’s ability to score, rebound, pass and defend Lebron James is going to be where Golden State wins or loses this series.
If I know that, the Warriors definitely know that, because now that it has come down to a battle of big threes, the need for Green to outplay Kevin Love is extremely important. While Green will spend some time guarding Love as well, he is going to be a huge asset in this game. His play in their two games this regular season tells a lot of the story, but the bigger story may be that when Green has a double-double this postseason, the Warriors are a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. I think Green is going to come to play in this series and cash the over in his prop tonight in Game 1.
My Pick: Over 29.5 -115
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Kevin Love O/U 28.5 points, rebounds and assists
Speaking of outplaying Love, the Cavaliers’ power forward/center has a lot riding on him. He is also going to be key to the Cavalier’s success, but his shooting numbers and splits tell the story of these playoffs, and potentially of Game 1 of this series.
Love is not shooting well inside the arc. If he weren’t shooting threes so well, we’d be talking about how bad he has been. The Warriors were second in the league this season in their opponent’s three-point percentage at 33.2 percent. The other factor is Love has not shot the ball well on the road so far in the playoffs. In seven road games this postseason, Love is shooting 35.6 percent from the floor. He is actually shooting threes better on the road than he is overall from the floor, so that means he is shooting less than 30 percent from inside the arc on road games this postseason.
The answer for Golden State is simple. Prevent Love from shooting open threes with a smaller and quicker defender like Harrison Barnes, and leave Green to guard James. He might get a few extra rebounds since he is averaging about 11 per game on the road, but if they keep him shooting poorly on the road, he will fall under the NBA Odds offer.
My Pick: Under 28.5 -115
Best Line Offered: at Intertops
Channing Frye O/U 7 points
Our player props story ends tonight with Channing Frye, who if Love is not playing well will see the court a lot. Unlike Love, Frye has been on fire this postseason, as he leads all players in the playoffs in True Shooting Percentage, 2-point percentage and Offensive Rating. Frye’s per-36 numbers are nearly 20 points per game, so if Love is not getting it done, or is in foul trouble, Frye is going to be there to pick up the slack.
He is averaging over 11 points per game in less than 18 minutes per game so far in the last two series, and there have been times in these playoffs he has seen over 20 minutes. If the Warriors go small, and the Cavaliers need their shooting on the floor, they will have both Love and Frye on the court at the same time, which may be their only option if the Warriors go small with Green at center. My point is Frye is about to see 20 minutes in this one, and if he does, he is safe for over seven points as your NBA Props Pick.
My Pick: Over 7 -115
Best Line Offered: at Heritage