Make An Informed NBA Pick On Total For Pistons vs. Cavaliers Game 4

Sunday, April 24, 2016 12:32 PM GMT

The Pistons hope to avoid a first-round sweep and pick up their only playoff win in eight years as they host the Cavaliers in Game 4 Sunday night. Get your free NBA pick here.

Cleveland Cavaliers (60-25 SU, 40-42-3 ATS)
The triumvirate of LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving are clicking at the right time, particularly offensively. They are averaging 21 points or more in the first-round series each. The Cavs are 4-0 SU and ATS at the Palace of Auburn Hills when James, Love, and Irving suit up together, wining by an average of 8.8 points.

Cleveland is letting it fly from the three-point area in the series, which is par for the course. It put up 29.8 attempts per game in the regular season, third-most in the NBA. Through the first three games, the Cavs tossed up 102 attempts—in large part to a high-number of kickouts with Detroit's Andre Drummond protecting the paint. Irving is 12 for 23 from behind the arc, while James, who struggled from the area all season, is shooting just 23 percent.

Cleveland plays a little shakier on defense since Tyronn Lue took over head coaching duties in January, allowing 100.5 points per game versus 95.7 prior. It held the Pistons below their projected team total offered at NBA Odds by an average of six points in the last two games, but only made it three in a row twice under Lue's leadership in the regular season.

Cleveland has won 11 straight postseason games over Detroit, the second longest playoff winning streak over an opponent in NBA history.


 

Detroit Pistons (44-41 SU, 43-41-1 ATS)
“Rebounding's been one of our strengths all year. Its been terrible in this series”, quipped Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy following the team's 101-91 Game 3 defeat. Detroit, who owned the second highest rebounding percentage in the NBA in the regular season, has fallen on the glass in two of three against the Cavs. Not only is rebounding imperative to Detroit's success, but it plays a large part for bettors too. The Pistons are 37-17 SU and 35-18-1 ATS in games where they outrebounded their opponents this season. They are 7-24 SU and 8-23 when collecting as many boards or less in a contest.

In addition to rebounding, the Pistons need to get Reggie Jackson going if they hope to extend the series. Jackson, who entered the first-round matchup as the only Pistons player with postseason experience, has been quiet offensively. Averaging 18.8 points per game in the regular season, he's netted 17, 14, and 13 through the first three games respectively. This is not good news for Detroit bettors and fans.

When Jackson produces points, the Pistons win. Period. When the point guard nets more than 20 points in a game, Detroit is 23-4 SU and ATS, averaging 108.8 points per game.

Detroit has lost nine postseason games in a row, last picking up a win in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Celtics in 2008.

 

Final Analysis
Van Gundy is too good a coach to let his team go down without a fight. Expect Detroit to make proper adjustments, and find a way to get plenty of extra-scoring chances and effective looks offensively. We're not sure anything can slow down the James-Love-Irving combo right now, though--at least in the Eastern Conference. Expect Detroit to make this one competitive, but fall short late. Over 198 is the NBA pick on this game.

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Free NBA Pick:  Over 198
Best Line Offered:  at Bovada