Magic and Raptors to stay ‘under’ is the NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, December 15, 2014 6:18 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 15, 2014 6:18 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.


With one team struggling offensively and the other team playing a back-to-back following an overtime game last night, the ‘under’ seems like the prudent call Monday night north of the border when the Orlando Magic (10-16, 7-10 away) travel way north to pay a visit to the Toronto Raptors (18-6, 11-3 home) at Air Canada Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:35 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Florida.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 197 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

Best Record in Eastern Conference
The Raptors are the reigning Atlantic Division Champions, but the general consensus last season was that Toronto was simply the best team of a weak bunch inside the division, and then losing in the first round of the NBA Playoffs to the Brooklyn Nets did nothing to dispel that belief. There is a different vibe around the Raps this season however as the current top seeds in the conference as they could be legitimate threats to represent the East in the NBA Finals.

The Magic were one of the worst NBA picks in the league last season but at least they had a nice young nucleus of players that figured to get better. And the Magic have indeed shown improvement, especially on the road where they are now 7-10, which is nearly double the amount of road wins they had all of last season when they finished 4-37 away from home including going 1-29 on the road after January 1st!

Two Overtimes in New York Sunday
As good as the Raptors have been this season, this is not a good spot for them after playing overtime last night in a 95-90 win vs. the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden in a game that rather easily stayed ‘under’ the total even with the extra stanza, and then having to travel afterwards. Granted it was not the fastest-paced game in the world, but Toronto did expend quite a bit of energy on defense while holding the Knicks to 37.2 percent shooting.

The Raptors are playing without DeMar DeRozan these days and they sure missed his 19.4 points per game last night while sitting at only 86 points at the end of regulation time. Playing on potentially tired legs tonight will probably not help matters offensively either.

However, keep in mind that the Toronto defense is allowing a reasonable 99.8 points per game, a figure that drops to 95.8 points here in Canada. Granted that has as much to do with ranking 18th in the NBA in Pace Rating as it does with actually playing defense, but that will not change tonight either as the Raptors again figure to slow the pace after logging those five extra minutes last night.

Offense Worse on the Road
The Magic come off of an exhilarating 100-99 upset of the Atlanta Hawks at home on Saturday, but those 100 points may have seemed like a feast for an Orlando team ranked 25th in the NBA in scoring with only 94.3 points per game. In fact, that marked just the fifth time in 26 games this season that the Magic have reached 100 points during regulation time, and their scoring has been worse on the road where they average 92.9 points.

But wait, were we not gushing about the Magic’s improvement earlier? Well, yes but the biggest improvement has come on the defensive end where after ranking in the bottom third of the league while allowing 102.0 points per game last season, Orlando has lowered that figure to 99..2 points allowed overall this season including just 97.9 points per game allowed on the road.

7-2 ‘under’ Run for Orlando
Because of that newfound defense, the Magic enter this contest right a 7-2 ‘under’ run with the average combined total score in those last nine games being a mere 188.6 points, which is more that eight points less than this posted total.

Look for more of the same tonight, especially with the Raptors slowing things down after last night, so go ‘under’ when Orlando visits Canada to face Toronto on Monday.

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NBA Pick: Magic, Raptors ‘under’ 197 (-110)


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