Magic vs. Heat NBA Picks: Orlando a Big Underdog Again

The Orlando Magic (1-2) make the short in-state trip to play the Miami Heat (1-1) on Monday. Check out our expert Magic vs Heat picks.

Orlando will attempt to build on its outright win as a 12-point underdog against the New York Knicks on Sunday. Miami could not follow up on that dominant 137-95 win over the Milwaukee Bucks in its season opener and lost 102-91 in overtime to the Indiana Pacers on Saturday. 

The Heat are a 14-point favorite for Monday’s matchup at many top sportsbooks with a total of 214.5 points. The last four meetings between these teams were all decided by fewer than nine points with the Heat winning three of four.

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday’s NBA matchup between the Magic and Heat (odds via BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Magic vs. Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Monday, October 25, 7:30 p.m. ETTV: Local marketsLocation: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

Magic vs. Heat Odds Analysis

The Magic are huge underdogs again. It makes sense after the team played terribly in the first two games of the season, while being outscored by 26 and 25 points. However, they turned things around with a win over the Knicks in a rematch on Sunday. The Heat went from a blowout win to an overtime loss after running out of gas against the Pacers. Miami has the second-best net rating (+14.6) through two games, but that’s just two games. This is a big spread to cover for anyone.

The Over is 3-0 in Orlando’s games so far, but Monday’s 214.5-point projected is its highest of the season. Each Magic game has settled in the 214-220 range. Miami was one of the slowest-paced offenses a season ago but the Over still hit in 52.6% of its games.

Magic vs. Heat Picks

Magic +14 (-109) (????)Under 214.5 (-113) (??)

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Magic vs. Heat Predictions

Magic +14 (-109)

Orlando did not shoot well against the Knicks on Sunday (40.9 field-goal percentage, 27.9 3-point percentage), but it was aggressive and attempted 34 free throws, almost as many as it had in the first two games of the season combined. 

PG Cole Anthony led the way in the fourth-quarter comeback with 29 points. He was the only Orlando starter with more than 11 points. SG Terrence Ross scored 22 points off the bench and is off to a good start this season while shooting 51.7 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from three.

The Heat are coming off a game where they shot just 38.5 percent from the field on Saturday. SF P.J. Tucker was scoreless in over 35 minutes after he made a couple of 3-pointers against his former team in Milwaukee. SG Jimmy Butler struggled and made just 7 of 22 shots against the Pacers. While SG Tyler Herro chipped in 30 points from the bench, he was 3-for-12 from three and a minus-15 in the box score. The Heat could still be without PG Kyle Lowry (ankle), as well.

Miami certainly has a better roster than Orlando, but that has been true for many years. Yet, only three times in their last 28 meetings have the Heat beat the Magic by more than 14 points. I think Orlando can keep it close enough to cover.

Under 214.5 (-113)

It is painfully early, but the Heat are first in defensive rating after finishing seventh in that stat last season. Their games are rarely shootouts, and it is hard to see the Magic having the firepower to engage in one in this matchup. Neither team is coming off a stellar shooting game over the weekend.

These teams met twice in the same week in March last season. The first matchup had 214 points and the second had 199. I think this one is going to be close to the line, but I can see Miami winning a 110-100 kind of game. They’ll fail to hit the Over or get the cover in the process. 

Picks made 10/25/2021 at 6 a.m. ET.